Fire Probability, Fuel Treatment Effectiveness and Ecological Tradeoffs in Western U.S. Public Forests

Rhodes, Jonathan J.; Baker, William L.

doi:10.2174/1874398600801010001

Cited by 34 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 30 publications

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“…Although the chaparral and oak fuel types in the low elevation region had relatively rapid fire spread rates, there were few treatments in those areas to reduce the spread of fire. The relationship between treatment effect and area of intersection between fires and treatments speaks to one of the concerns over fuels treatment efficacy: for treatments to be effective, they must intersect with fires that occur stochastically across space and time (Rhodes and Baker 2008). The strength of the LANDIS-II model is that it simulates the stochastic nature of fire and how the probability of fire is conditioned on multiple, interacting, dynamic processes (such as succession, weather, topography, disturbance history and stochastic ignitions) that vary over time across large, heterogeneous landscapes.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…A fundamental concern is that, given the stochastic nature of fire, if fires rarely or never encounter fuels treatments on the landscape, the ability of treatments to reduce fire severity will be minimised (Rhodes and Baker 2008). Furthermore, fuels treatments are fully effective for a limited time, further decreasing opportunities for intersection.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Simulating landscape-scale effects of fuels treatments in the Sierra Nevada, California, USA

Syphard

Scheller

Ward

et al. 2011

Int. J. Wildland Fire

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In many coniferous forests of the western United States, wildland fuel accumulation and projected climate conditions increase the likelihood that fires will become larger and more intense. Fuels treatments and prescribed fire are widely recommended, but there is uncertainty regarding their ability to reduce the severity of subsequent fires at a landscape scale. Our objective was to investigate the interactions among landscape-scale fire regimes, fuels treatments and fire weather in the southern Sierra Nevada, California. We used a spatially dynamic model of wildfire, succession and fuels management to simulate long-term (50 years), broad-scale (across 2.2 Â 10 6 ha) effects of fuels treatments. We simulated thin-from-below treatments followed by prescribed fire under current weather conditions and under more severe weather. Simulated fuels management minimised the mortality of large, old trees, maintained total landscape plant biomass and extended fire rotation, but effects varied based on elevation, type of treatment and fire regime. The simulated area treated had a greater effect than treatment intensity, and effects were strongest where more fires intersected treatments and when simulated weather conditions were more severe. In conclusion, fuels treatments in conifer forests potentially minimise the ecological effects of high-severity fire at a landscape scale provided that 8% of the landscape is treated every 5 years, especially if future fire weather conditions are more severe than those in recent years.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Simulating landscape-scale effects of fuels treatments in the Sierra Nevada, California, USA

Syphard

Scheller

Ward

et al. 2011

Int. J. Wildland Fire

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“…However, when years with extreme area of fire are considered, the effects of current management and accelerated restoration were larger compared https://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol22/iss1/art25/ to no management on federal lands. Years with extremely high fire area would have more fire-fuel treatment encounters than in years with less fire, making higher fuel treatment scenarios more effective during those years (Rhodes and Baker 2008, Barros et al 2017. Considering only extreme fire years, the variation in amount of high-severity fire among the scenarios was quite large, and distributions of high-severity fire overlapped among the scenarios.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Using an agent-based model to examine forest management outcomes in a fire-prone landscape in Oregon, USA

Spies¹,

White²,

Ager³

et al. 2017

E&S

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. 2017. Using an agent-based model to examine forest management outcomes in a fire-prone landscape in Oregon, USA. Ecology and Society 22 (1) ABSTRACT. Fire-prone landscapes present many challenges for both managers and policy makers in developing adaptive behaviors and institutions. We used a coupled human and natural systems framework and an agent-based landscape model to examine how alternative management scenarios affect fire and ecosystem services metrics in a fire-prone multiownership landscape in the eastern Cascades of Oregon. Our model incorporated existing models of vegetation succession and fire spread and information from original empirical studies of landowner decision making. Our findings indicate that alternative management strategies can have variable effects on landscape outcomes over 50 years for fire, socioeconomic, and ecosystem services metrics. For example, scenarios with federal restoration treatments had slightly less high-severity fire than a scenario without treatment; exposure of homes in the wildland-urban interface to fire was also slightly less with restoration treatments compared to no management. Treatments appeared to be more effective at reducing high-severity fire in years with more fire than in years with less fire. Under the current management scenario, timber production could be maintained for at least 50 years on federal lands. Under an accelerated restoration scenario, timber production fell because of a shortage of areas meeting current stand structure treatment targets. Trade-offs between restoration outcomes (e.g., open forests with large fire-resistant trees) and habitat for species that require dense older forests were evident. For example, the proportional area of nesting habitat for northern spotted owl (Strix occidentalis) was somewhat less after 50 years under the restoration scenarios than under no management. However, the amount of resilient older forest structure and habitat for white-headed woodpecker (Leuconotopicus albolarvatus) was higher after 50 years under active management. More carbon was stored on this landscape without management than with management, despite the occurrence of high-severity wildfire. Our results and further applications of the model could be used in collaborative settings to facilitate discussion and development of policies and practices for fire-prone landscapes.

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“…A variety of fuel treatments have been promoted as a means of restoring fire-dependent forests to conditions that better resemble historical and healthy conditions that existed prior to long-term fire suppression [16][17][18][19][20]. However, several experts point out that it may not be financially, politically, and/or physically feasible to decrease fuel loads enough to significantly reduce wildfire losses [12,21,22].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluating Sensitivity of the Ranking of Forest Fuel Treatments to Manager’s Risk Attitudes and the Importance of Treatment Objectives, Montana, USA

Prato

Paveglio

2019

International Journal of Forestry Research

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This study develops a conceptual framework for evaluating the sensitivity of the ranking of forest fuel treatment strategies (FTSs) to variation in managers’ risk attitudes and the importance ratings managers assign to fuel treatment objectives and demonstrates the application of the framework using a case study. The conceptual framework involves (1) defining a utility function on an index that is a weighted average of fuel treatment objectives and incorporates a manager’s risk attitude; (2) using the utility function to calculate utility values for FTSs; (3) applying the stochastic efficiency with respect to a function method to utility values to obtain certainty equivalents (CEs); and (4) ranking FTSs based on statistically significant differences in median CEs for pairs of FTSs. The case study involves three (federal, state, and private) forested areas in Flathead County, Montana, USA, three FTSs (i.e., Community Wildfire Protection Plan (CWPP) Priority; CWPP & Wildland-Urban Interface Priority; and No Priority), three treatment objectives (i.e., minimizing expected residential monetary losses from wildfire, minimizing expected deviation of forest ecological conditions from their historic range and variability, and maximizing expected net returns from timber harvesting associated with fuel treatment), two risk attitudes (i.e., almost risk neutral and highly risk averse), and 35 weight scenarios for treatment objectives. Case study results are used to test the hypothesis that the ranking of FTSs is sensitive to manager’s risk attitudes and the importance ratings for management objectives. The ranking of FTSs for the three forested areas was insensitive for an almost risk neutral manager and sensitive for a highly risk averse manager. In general, the case study indicates that the ranking of FTSs is sensitive to both a forest manager’s risk attitudes and the importance ratings assigned to fuel treatment objectives.

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Fire Probability, Fuel Treatment Effectiveness and Ecological Tradeoffs in Western U.S. Public Forests

Cited by 34 publications

References 30 publications

Simulating landscape-scale effects of fuels treatments in the Sierra Nevada, California, USA

Simulating landscape-scale effects of fuels treatments in the Sierra Nevada, California, USA

Using an agent-based model to examine forest management outcomes in a fire-prone landscape in Oregon, USA

Evaluating Sensitivity of the Ranking of Forest Fuel Treatments to Manager’s Risk Attitudes and the Importance of Treatment Objectives, Montana, USA

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