Fire probability prediction of offshore platform based on Dynamic Bayesian Network

Wang, Yan Fu; Qin, Tao; Li, Biao; Sun, Xiao Fei; Li, Yu Lian

doi:10.1016/j.oceaneng.2017.08.035

Cited by 41 publications

(20 citation statements)

References 34 publications

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“…Wang et al [126] proposed an approach which integrates Markov models and Bayesian networks to analyze a dynamic Bayesian network. They showed that their proposed approach is useful for estimating the dynamic probability of fire on an offshore platform.…”

Section: Analysis Of Aleatory Uncertainty Handling Contributionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Uncertainty handling in fault tree based risk assessment: State of the art and future perspectives

Yazdi

Kabir

Walker

2019

Process Safety and Environmental Protection

149

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Risk assessment methods have been widely used in various industries, and they play a significant role in improving the safety performance of systems. However, the outcomes of risk assessment approaches are subject to uncertainty and ambiguity due to the complexity and variability of system behaviour, scarcity of quantitative data about different system parameters, and human involvement in the analysis, operation, and decision-making processes. The implications for improving system safety are slowly being recognised; however, research on uncertainty handling during both qualitative and quantitative risk assessment procedures is a growing field. This paper presents a review of the state of the art in this field, focusing on uncertainty handling in fault tree analysis (FTA) based risk assessment. Theoretical contributions, aleatory uncertainty, epistemic uncertainty, and integration of both epistemic and aleatory uncertainty handling in the scientific and technical literature are carefully reviewed. The emphasis is on highlighting how assessors can handle uncertainty based on the available evidence as an input to FTA.

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Section: Analysis Of Aleatory Uncertainty Handling Contributionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Uncertainty handling in fault tree based risk assessment: State of the art and future perspectives

Yazdi

Kabir

Walker

2019

Process Safety and Environmental Protection

149

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“…Asgary, Ghaffari, and Levy (2010) noted that studies were successful in providing insights about spatiotemporal patterns of fire incidents, which were useful in planning fire prevention and response management (e.g., Špatenková & Virrantaus, 2013;Balahadia & Trillanes,2017;Balahadia, et al, 2019;Yao & Zhang, 2016;Wang, et al, 2011). Other studies of fire incidents using prediction and data mining approach were Karouni, et al, (2014), Raghuwanshi (2016), Wang, et al (2017), Stojanova, et al (2006), and Zhang & Jiang (2012).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Application of Spatiotemporal Analysis and Knowledge Discovery for Databases in the Bureau of Fire Protection as Incident Report System: Tool for Improving Fire Services

Balahadia

Vinluan

Gonzales

et al. 2021

IJCSR

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Purpose–This study aims to contribute to the fire research by developing a fire report management system for the BFP that can analyze spatiotemporal attributes of fire and 520apply Knowledge Discovery in Databases (KDD) methods to identify patterns of fire incidents in the city of Manila.Method–The proponents applied the Knowledge Discovery in Databases (KDD) methods for the processing of identifying fire patterns as well as the application of SMOTE, One-Hot Encoding, and Agile Method as Software developmental model. Result–The records obtained from the BFP headquarters in Manila had a total of 3,506 cases during the six years from 2011 to 2016. The accuracy of the Decision Tree classifier model was 95.92%.Using KDD approach, it generated decision rules fire pattern in Manila. Most fire causes fall under the 'Under Investigation' category while Residential-Commercial types of establishments in Intramuros were affected. Lastly, the fire occurred in the mornings, during Sundays when most people are in their homes and the majority of which took place in the Pandacan district.Conclusion–The application of KDD in building a predictive model to be integrated into the system was the major part of this project. The outputs generated by the system can provide material for use in more accurate fire risk assessments, more efficient allocation of fire resources and personnel, and more targeted fire awareness and prevention programs.Recommendation–Future research in this area may include other factors contributing to a higher likelihood of fire incidences such as weather conditions and other geographical attributes of fire-prone locations. Analysis of these and other relevant factors may allow the BFP to gainfurther insights into the causes of fire incidents, which will enable the agency to make the necessary adjustments and changes in their current fire prevention and risk reduction programsPractical Implication–This study provides direct implication for the Bureau of Fire Protection and community through the given insights of the fire activities and the created model of the system that determine Manila's fire patterns that help identify appropriate information about fire activities and preventive measures of fire incidents.

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“…While this wider safety research does not directly relate to fire safety in machinery spaces, its application may provide holistic improvements in fire safety in ships, which would ultimately include the machinery spaces. This systematic approach to accident prevention is not at the expense of analysis of individual features of fire prevention however and can be noted in the literature covering human and organisational factors, historical causal factors of fires in maritime transportation, calculation of fire probability (25)(26)(27), along with fire impact analysis research focusing on mitigating the outbreak of fire (28)(29)(30)(31)(32)(33)(34)(35)(36)(37)(38)(39)(40)(41).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis of effectiveness of fire safety in machinery spaces

McNay

Puisa

Vassalos

2019

Fire Safety Journal

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The primary cause of machinery space fires is cited as the release of flammable oil mist contacting unprotected hot surfaces. With this being common knowledge why do we continue to see this type of incident reoccurring on ships carrying thousands of passengers to precarious destinations? We review regulatory and Class requirements with respect to fire safety, Formal Safety Assessment (FSA) as a rule-making instrument of the IMO, accident investigation recommendations involving fire, fire safety technology, and research literature. For each constituent of fire safety control, the paper aims to determine the preferred strategies for accident prevention and their relative cost effectiveness. Subsequently, the cost effectiveness of the current safety approach is established. This review found that fire prevention could be made more cost effective if its scope was broadened beyond the detection of proximate events occurring immediately before ignition. The findings suggest that more cost-effective safety measures can be developed by addressing systemic causes of fire. Removal of the systemic causal factors of fire from the equation, means we can address fire safety prior to the moments before ignition when the point of no return can unwittingly be passed. The paper suggests directions of how this can be achieved. Design & Operation Implementation of design and operational safety measures Rules & regulations (existing and prospective-FSA) Political, commercial and other pressures Accident investigation Safety systems on market from technology suppliers Knowledge base Academic research

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Fire probability prediction of offshore platform based on Dynamic Bayesian Network

Cited by 41 publications

References 34 publications

Uncertainty handling in fault tree based risk assessment: State of the art and future perspectives

Uncertainty handling in fault tree based risk assessment: State of the art and future perspectives

Application of Spatiotemporal Analysis and Knowledge Discovery for Databases in the Bureau of Fire Protection as Incident Report System: Tool for Improving Fire Services

Analysis of effectiveness of fire safety in machinery spaces

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