Fire propensity in Amazon savannas and rainforest and effects under future climate change

Abstract

Background Fire dynamics in the Amazon, while not fully understood, are central to designing fire management strategies and providing a baseline for projecting the effects of climate change. Aims The study investigates the recent fire probabilities in the northeastern Amazon and project future ‘fire niches’ under global warming scenarios, allowing the evaluation of drivers and areas of greatest susceptibility. Methods Using the maximum entropy method, we combined a complex set of predictors with fire occurrences detected during 2000–2020. We estimated changes in fire patterns in the near (2020–2040) and distant (2080–2100) future, under two contrasting scenarios of shared socioeconomic pathways. Key results Based on current conditions, the spatial fire pattern is affected by farming activities and fire is more common in savannas than in forests. Over long time scales, changes toward a warmer and drier climate, independent of land cover change, are expected to create conditions more conducive to burning. Conclusion and implications Our study helps in understanding the multiple ecological and human interactions that result in different fire regimes in the Amazon. Future efforts can improve outcomes through more complex models that couple predictions of land use and land cover changes, shifts in vegetation resulting from climate change and fires, and fuel dynamics.

Prediction of geographic distribution and ecological niche modeling of açaí palm trees in the Amazon

“…Changes in the landscape and environment may favor the contact among species that occupy contrasting environments (Santana et al 2022).…”

“…Another aggravating factor is the strong burning that affects the edges of the Amazon in the southern, southeastern and eastern portions. According to the Annual Report on Deforestation in Brazil (Santana et al 2022), in 2021 the Amazon and the Cerrado together corresponded to 89.2 % of the total deforested area, with the Amazon facing a total of 977,733 ha (59 %) and the Cerrado 500,537 ha (30.2 %) of deforestation. This strip of land is known as the "Arc of Deforestation" and has a great anthropic intervention action, due to the expansion of agricultural areas in the Amazon.…”