Firewalling Nuclear Diffusion

Abstract

This paper examines the primary international firewall in place against the diffusion of nuclear weapons and related equipment, materials, and knowledge. It links the transformative moments of the nuclear non‐proliferation regime to select events. It posits these shocks either (i) revealed the presence of, or (ii) instigated fears about new or accelerated diffusion flows, with clear implications for nuclearization. By recasting the regime's evolution in this manner, the paper provides newfound insight as to the timing and character of change. It also reveals the considerable impact of diffusion processes beyond outcomes of diffusion and non‐diffusion, adding definition to the firewall concept.

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