Firm-Level Exposure to Epidemic Diseases: COVID-19, SARS, and H1N1

Hassan, Tarek A.; Hollander, Stephan; Lent, Laurence van; Schwedeler, Markus; Tahoun, Ahmed

doi:10.3386/w26971

Cited by 297 publications

(243 citation statements)

References 13 publications

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“…Ru, et al [69] claimed that investors from nations with prior knowledge of comparable calamities respond more quickly to COVID-19 than the investors deprived of experience. Hassan, et al [70] suggested that firms having experience with SARS or H1N1 own more positive prospects towards their capacity to handle the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic.…”

Section: Prior Research Regarding the Economic And Financial Consequementioning

confidence: 99%

Stock Market Reactions to COVID-19 Pandemic Outbreak: Quantitative Evidence from ARDL Bounds Tests and Granger Causality Analysis

Gherghina

Armeanu

Joldeș

2020

IJERPH

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This paper examines the linkages in financial markets during coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic outbreak. For this purpose, daily stock market returns were used over the period of December 31, 2019–April 20, 2020 for the following economies: USA, Spain, Italy, France, Germany, UK, China, and Romania. The study applied the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model to explore whether the Romanian stock market is impacted by the crisis generated by novel coronavirus. Granger causality was employed to investigate the causalities among COVID-19 and stock market returns, as well as between pandemic measures and several commodities. The outcomes of the ARDL approach failed to find evidence towards the impact of Chinese COVID-19 records on the Romanian financial market, neither in the short-term, nor in the long-term. On the other hand, our quantitative approach reveals a negative effect of the new deaths’ cases from Italy on the 10-year Romanian bond yield both in the short-run and long-run. The econometric research provide evidence that Romanian 10-year government bond is more sensitive to the news related to COVID-19 than the index of the Bucharest Stock Exchange. Granger causality analysis reveals causal associations between selected stock market returns and Philadelphia Gold/Silver Index.

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Section: Prior Research Regarding the Economic And Financial Consequementioning

confidence: 99%

Stock Market Reactions to COVID-19 Pandemic Outbreak: Quantitative Evidence from ARDL Bounds Tests and Granger Causality Analysis

Gherghina

Armeanu

Joldeș

2020

IJERPH

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“…The first strain-which argues that demand shocks dominate-takes a broad approach to uncovering the perceptions of firms regarding the nature of the pandemic, eliciting direct evidence of changes in firms' behavior, perceptions, and expectations. Hassan et al (2020) analyze transcripts of quarterly earnings calls held by public firms across the globe and find concerns over a negative demand shock are nearly twice as prevalent as mentions of supply chain disruption. In a survey of small firms, Bartik et al (2020) find respondents cited reductions in demand to a much larger degree than supply chain issues as reasons for temporary closures.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Business Expectations

2020

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We document and evaluate how businesses are reacting to the COVID-19 crisis through August 2020. First, on net, firms see the shock (thus far) largely as a demand rather than supply shock. A greater share of firms report significant or severe disruption to sales activity than to supply chains. We compare these measures of disruption to their expected changes in selling prices and find that, even for firms that report supply chain disruption, they expect to lower nearterm selling prices on average. We also show that firms are engaging in wage cuts and expect to trim wages further before the end of 2020. These cuts stem from firms that have been disproportionally negatively impacted by the pandemic. Second, firms (like professional forecasters) have responded to the COVID-19 pandemic by lowering their 1-year ahead inflation expectations. These responses stand in stark contrast to that of household inflation expectations (as measured by the University of Michigan or the New York Fed). Indeed, firms' 1-year ahead inflation expectations fell precipitously (to a series low) following the onset of the pandemic, while household measures of inflation expectations jumped markedly. Third, despite the dramatic decline in firms' near-term inflation expectations, their longer-run inflation expectations remain reasonably well-anchored.

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“…We think of this as capturing the kinds of investments in maintenance, employee retention, and inventory that businesses make while anticipating the ensuing trajectory of lockdown 1 Following the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, Baker et al (2020) document a fourfold increase in their Economic Policy Uncertainty index, reaching its highest value on record. Hassan et al (2020) track firm-level risks and sentiments due to government-related and other factors using text analysis of earnings conference calls. A recent report by McKinsey & Company, Smit et al (2020) conclude that "lockdowns also cause uncertainty to remain high, as the extent of the structural damage to the economy becomes less predictable the longer lockdowns stay in place" and that "this uncertainty is paralyzing.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Pandemic Lockdown: The Role of Government Commitment

Moser¹,

Yared²

2020

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and the CEPR/IHEID Webinar for helpful comments. Rachel Williams provided excellent research assistance. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, the Federal Reserve System, or the National Bureau of Economic Research. Any errors are our own. NBER working papers are circulated for discussion and comment purposes. They have not been peer-reviewed or been subject to the review by the NBER Board of Directors that accompanies official NBER publications.

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Firm-Level Exposure to Epidemic Diseases: COVID-19, SARS, and H1N1

Cited by 297 publications

References 13 publications

Stock Market Reactions to COVID-19 Pandemic Outbreak: Quantitative Evidence from ARDL Bounds Tests and Granger Causality Analysis

Stock Market Reactions to COVID-19 Pandemic Outbreak: Quantitative Evidence from ARDL Bounds Tests and Granger Causality Analysis

The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Business Expectations

Pandemic Lockdown: The Role of Government Commitment

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