Fiscal policy in Central and Eastern Europe with real time data: cyclicality, inertia and the role of EU accession

Lewis, John

doi:10.1080/00036846.2012.705428

Cited by 17 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 37 publications

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“…In addition, the paper confirms the finding that fiscal plans have been counter-cyclical in economic expansions. Lewis (2013) investigates the cyclical stance and the effect of EU accession for fiscal policy in Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs). The paper uses a real-time data set constructed from the Transition Report of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD).…”

Section: Fiscal Policy Rules Based Only On Real-time Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Real‐time Data and Fiscal Policy Analysis: A Survey of the Literature

Cimadomo

2014

Journal of Economic Surveys

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This paper surveys the empirical research on fiscal policy analysis based on real‐time data. This literature can be broadly divided into four groups that focus on: (1) the statistical properties of revisions in fiscal data; (2) the political and institutional determinants of projection errors by governments; (3) the reaction of fiscal policies to the business cycle and (4) the use of real‐time fiscal data in structural vector autoregression (VAR) models. It emerges that, first, fiscal revisions are large and initial releases are biased estimates of final values. Secondly, strong fiscal rules and institutions lead to more accurate releases of fiscal data and smaller deviations of fiscal outcomes from government plans. Thirdly, the cyclical stance of fiscal policies is estimated to be more ‘counter‐cyclical’ when real‐time data are used instead of ex post data. Fourthly, real‐time data can be useful for the identification of fiscal shocks. Finally, it is shown that existing real‐time fiscal data sets cover only a limited number of countries and variables. For example, real‐time data for developing countries are generally unavailable. In addition, real‐time data on European countries are often missing, especially with respect to government revenues and expenditures. Therefore, more work is needed in this field.

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Section: Fiscal Policy Rules Based Only On Real-time Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Real‐time Data and Fiscal Policy Analysis: A Survey of the Literature

Cimadomo

2014

Journal of Economic Surveys

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“…The idea of using fiscal plans for the estimation of fiscal policy reactions has been subsequently adopted by other papers. Some of these papers also focus on the cyclical stance of fiscal policies (e.g., Lewis (2009), , Pina (2009), Holm-Hadulla, Hauptmeier, and Rother (2011)); some other papers address different issues (e.g., Giuliodori and Beetsma (2008)). Lewis (2009) investigates the cyclical stance and effect of EU accession for fiscal policy in Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs).…”

Section: Reaction Of Fiscal Policies To the Economic Cyclementioning

confidence: 99%

Real-Time Data and Fiscal Policy Analysis: A Survey of the Literature

Cimadomo¹

2011

Working Paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia)

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This paper surveys the empirical research on fiscal policy analysis based on real-time data. This literature can be broadly divided in three groups that focus on: (1) the statistical properties of revisions in fiscal data; (2) the political and institutional determinants of fiscal data revisions and of one-year-ahead projection errors by governments and (3) the reaction of fiscal policies to the business cycle. It emerges that, first, fiscal data revisions are large and initial releases are biased estimates of final values. Second, the presence of strong fiscal rules and institutions leads to relatively more accurate releases of fiscal data and small deviations of fiscal outcomes from government plans. Third, the cyclical stance of fiscal policies is estimated to be more 'counter-cyclical' when real-time data are used instead of ex-post data. Finally, more work is needed for the development of real-time datasets for fiscal policy analysis. In particular, a comprehensive real-time dataset including fiscal variables for industrialized (and possibly developing) countries, published and maintained by central banks or other institutions, is still missing.

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“…Von Hagen (2008) studies deviations of ex-post data from fiscal plans and explores in particular the role of fiscal governance and fiscal rules for the quality of the plan. Analogous to earlier work on fiscal reaction functions, Forni and Momigliano (2004), Cimadomo (2007), Marinheiro (2008), Lewis (2009), Pina (2009) and Beetsma and Giuliodori (2010) investigate the cyclicality of fiscal policy in the planning and implementation stages, producing rather widely diverging conclusions. Our current focus on a single country over a relatively long period should be conducive to drawing more definitive conclusions on the behavior of policymakers in the two stages of the fiscal process, and addressing the role of changing the institutional setting for the budgetary process.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Fifty Years of Fiscal Planning and Implementation in the Netherlands

Beetsma

Giuliodori

Walschot³

et al. 2010

SSRN Journal

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Fifty Years of Fiscal Planning and Implementation in the Netherlands* Using real-time data from the annual budget over the period 1958-2009, we explore the planning and realization of fiscal policy in the Netherlands. Our key findings are the following. First, planned surpluses are on average unbiased, although they are overoptimistic during the first half of the sample and too pessimistic during the second half of the sample. The latter is the result of cautious real-time revenue estimates by the Dutch Ministry of Finance during this period. Second, real growth projections by the official Dutch forecasting agency are unbiased. This contrasts with the experience of the EU as a whole where biased growth projections represent an important source of fiscal slippage. Third, general economic conditions and the state of the public finances are important determinants of both fiscal plans and their implementation. Fourth, this is also the case for political and institutional factors. Expenditure overruns are partly related to political factors, whereas cautious revenue forecasts relate to the institutional setting. In particular, the most recent regime of the "trend-based budget policy" has worked well for fiscal discipline in the Netherlands.JEL Classification: E6 and H6

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Fiscal policy in Central and Eastern Europe with real time data: cyclicality, inertia and the role of EU accession

Cited by 17 publications

References 37 publications

Real‐time Data and Fiscal Policy Analysis: A Survey of the Literature

Real‐time Data and Fiscal Policy Analysis: A Survey of the Literature

Real-Time Data and Fiscal Policy Analysis: A Survey of the Literature

Fifty Years of Fiscal Planning and Implementation in the Netherlands

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