Fisheries science now and in the future: A personal view

Francis, Robert C.

doi:10.1080/00288330.1980.9515849

Cited by 7 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 11 publications

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“…Fisheries models have been criticized for developing to a level of complexity that is too great relative to the amount of reliable observational data that are available (Schnute and Richards, 2001). Fisheries biologists have repeatedly warned about building models so complex that the underlying biology is lost sight of, and many have pointed in the direction of simpler analysis approaches (Francis, 1980;Beverton, 1998;Schnute and Richards, 2001;Longhurst, 2006). National and international standards provide a context for evaluating the new protection measures.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing the effectiveness of conservation management decisions: likely effects of new protection measures for Hector's dolphin (Cephalorhynchus hectori)

Slooten

Dawson

2009

Aquatic Conservation

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ABSTRACT1. Fisheries bycatch affects many species of marine mammals, seabirds, turtles and other marine animals. 2. New Zealand's endemic Hector's dolphins overlap with gillnet and trawl fisheries throughout their geographic range. The species is listed as Endangered by the IUCN. In addition, the North Island subspecies has been listed as Critically Endangered.3. Estimates of catch rates in commercial gillnets from an observer programme (there are no quantitative estimates of bycatch by amateur gillnetters or in trawl fisheries) were used in a simple population viability analysis to predict the impact of this fishery under three scenarios: Option (A) status-quo management, (B) new regulations announced by the Minister of Fisheries in 2008 and (C) total protection.4. Uncertainty in estimates of population size and growth rate, number of dolphins caught and other model inputs are explicitly included in the analysis. Sensitivity analyses are carried out to examine the effect of variation in catch rate and the extent to which fishing effort is removed from protected areas but displaced to unprotected areas.5. These methods are applicable to many other situations in which animals are removed from populations, whether deliberately (e.g. fishing) or not (e.g. bycatch).6. The current Hector's dolphin population is clearly depleted, at an estimated 27% of the 1970 population. Population projections to 2050 under Options A and B predict that the total population is likely to continue declining. In the case of Option B this is driven mainly by continuing bycatch due to the much weaker protection measures on the South Island west coast.7. Without fishing mortality (Option C) all populations are projected to increase, with the total population approximately doubling by 2050 and reaching half of its 1970 population size in just under 40 years.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing the effectiveness of conservation management decisions: likely effects of new protection measures for Hector's dolphin (Cephalorhynchus hectori)

Slooten

Dawson

2009

Aquatic Conservation

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“…The danger with such a strategy, however, is that it can become a reinforcing style of collaboration (Leahey, ), which may have potential costs in terms of the production of novel information, and hindering exposure to heterogeneous ideas (Blondel et al, ). Given that much advancement in fisheries science has been cited as coming from the branches of the discipline rather than the roots (Francis, , p. 95), this pattern may work to limit the development of the field in a direction that may equip it to address some of the ongoing challenges in the field.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…By and large, each of these patterns may work to reinforce dominant ways of thinking in the field towards perspectives from the Global North (Forsyth, 2003), which have previously been cited as problematic within this domain (Bavington, 2010;Finley, 2011;Francis, 1980). Considering this, in line with the sentiments explicitly expressed in the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the UN's 2017 Global Oceans Science Report, increased capacity building at the individual, institutional and country levels (e.g., increased investment, more and better partnerships) may go some way to closing some of the gaps detected here in terms of research output inequalities between countries in the Global North and Global South (Boshoff, 2009;Dahdouh-Guebas et al, 2003;Jarić et al, 2012;Lansang & Dennis, 2004).…”

Section: Democratising Fisheries Science?mentioning

confidence: 99%

Mapping the global network of fisheries science collaboration

et al. 2019

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As socio‐environmental problems have proliferated over the past decades, one narrative which has captured the attention of policymakers and scientists has been the need for collaborative research that spans traditional boundaries. Collaboration, it is argued, is imperative for solving these problems. Understanding how collaboration is occurring in practice is important, however, and may help explain the idea space across a field. In an effort to make sense of the shape of fisheries science, here we construct a co‐authorship network of the field, from a data set comprising 73,240 scientific articles, drawn from 50 journals and published between 2000 and 2017. Using a combination of social network analysis and machine learning, the work first maps the global structure of scientific collaboration amongst fisheries scientists at the author, country and institutional levels. Second, it uncovers the hidden subgroups—here country clusters and communities of authors—within the network, detailing also the topical focus, publication outlets and relative impact of the largest fisheries science communities. We find that whilst the fisheries science network is becoming more geographically extensive, it is simultaneously becoming more intensive. The uncovered network exhibits characteristics suggestive of a thin style of collaboration, and groupings that are more regional than they are global. Although likely shaped by an array of overlapping micro‐ and macro‐level factors, the analysis reveals a number of political–economic patterns that merit reflection by both fisheries scientists and policymakers.

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“…Fisheries management is an area where that pressure to predict has been particularly acute, and it has been argued that in the quest to do so ecological realism was sacrificed [2], [3], [37], [38]. Most fisheries management policies today are based upon, in one way or another, single stock assessments, calculations of maximum sustainable yield (MSY), and the allocation of quotas [4], [39]- [42].…”

Section: An Example -Fisheriesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Some of these assumptions, it has been argued, are more tightly related to the demands of mathematics, and the capacities of quantitative models, than anything else[38]. Alongside this, historians have been astute in highlighting that part of the reason this approach to fisheries gained such traction was that it provided an approach that was in line with a number of political and economic objectives[4].…”

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confidence: 99%

Using Agent-Based Modelling to Inform Policy – What Could Possibly Go Wrong?

Edmonds

Aodha

2019

Lecture Notes in Computer Science

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Scientific modelling can make things worse, as in the case of the North Atlantic Cod Fisheries Collapse. Some of these failures have been attributed to the simplicity of the models used compared to what they are trying to model. Agent-Based Modelling (ABM) pushes the boundaries of what can be simulated, prompting many to assume that it can usefully inform policy, even in the face of complexity. That said, ABM also brings with it new difficulties and potential confusions. This paper surveys some of the pitfalls that can arise when ABM analysts try to do this. Researchers who claim (or imply) that ABM can reliably predict complex phenomena are criticised in particular. However, an alternative is suggested-that of using ABM for a kind of uncertainty analysis-identifying some of the possible ways a policy can go wrong (or indeed go right). A fisheries example is given. This alternative may widen, rather than narrow, the range of evidence and possibilities that are considered, which could enrich the policy-making process. We call this Reflexive Possibilistic Modelling.

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Fisheries science now and in the future: A personal view

Cited by 7 publications

References 11 publications

Assessing the effectiveness of conservation management decisions: likely effects of new protection measures for Hector's dolphin (Cephalorhynchus hectori)

Assessing the effectiveness of conservation management decisions: likely effects of new protection measures for Hector's dolphin (Cephalorhynchus hectori)

Mapping the global network of fisheries science collaboration

Using Agent-Based Modelling to Inform Policy – What Could Possibly Go Wrong?

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