Fitness and community feedbacks: the two axes that drive long-term invasion impacts

Arnoldi, Jean‐François; Barbier, Matthieu; Kelly, Ruth; Barabás, György; Jackson, Andrew L.

doi:10.1101/705756

Cited by 6 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 65 publications

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“…We consider the block structure of the temporal dissimilarity matrix at intermediate N to represent a form of Clementsian temporal turnover, characterised by sudden significant shifts in community composition. Metacommunity models similar to ours have been found to generate such patterns along spatial gradients 44 , potentially via an analogous mechanism 45 . Large, diverse model metacommunities manifest Gleasonian temporal turnover.…”

Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 68%

Intrinsic ecological dynamics drive biodiversity turnover in model metacommunities

2021

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Turnover of species composition through time is frequently observed in ecosystems. It is often interpreted as indicating the impact of changes in the environment. Continuous turnover due solely to ecological dynamics—species interactions and dispersal—is also known to be theoretically possible; however the prevalence of such autonomous turnover in natural communities remains unclear. Here we demonstrate that observed patterns of compositional turnover and other important macroecological phenomena can be reproduced in large spatially explicit model ecosystems, without external forcing such as environmental change or the invasion of new species into the model. We find that autonomous turnover is triggered by the onset of ecological structural instability—the mechanism that also limits local biodiversity. These results imply that the potential role of autonomous turnover as a widespread and important natural process is underappreciated, challenging assumptions implicit in many observation and management tools. Quantifying the baseline level of compositional change would greatly improve ecological status assessments.

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Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 68%

Intrinsic ecological dynamics drive biodiversity turnover in model metacommunities

2021

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“…We consider the block structure of the temporal dissimilarity matrix at intermediate N to represent a form of Clementsian temporal turnover, characterized by sudden significant shifts in community composition. Metacommunity models similar to ours have been found to generate such patterns along spatial gradients 44 , potentially via an analogous mechanism 45 . Large, diverse metacommunities manifest Gleasonian temporal turnover.…”

Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 68%

“…converge to fixed points, implying the absence of autonomous turnover 23 . With increasing metacommunity size N , however, we observe the emergence of persistent population dynamics ( 44 , potentially via an analogous mechanism 45 . Large, diverse metacommunities manifest Gleasonian temporal turnover.…”

Section: Autonomous Turnover In Model Metacommunitiesmentioning

confidence: 80%

Intrinsic ecological dynamics drive biodiversity turnover in model metacommunities

O’Sullivan

Terry

Rossberg

2020

Preprint

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1 Turnover of species composition through time is frequently observed in nature. 2 Often explained by changes in abiotic conditions or regional species pools, 3 compositional turnover is employed as an indicator of external stress in nat-4 ural ecosystems. Theoretically, the possibility of turnover driven by intrinsic 5 ecological dynamics-species interactions, dispersal-is also known, but what 6 role such autonomous turnover plays in nature remains unclear. Expanding 7 the boundaries of metacommunity modelling, we show that in large meta-8 communities immigration pressure from neighbouring locales robustly drives 9 continuous turnover in local composition-without environmental change or 10 regional invasions. That ecological communities may turn over autonomously 11 challenges assumptions implicit in assessment and management tools, and sug-12 gests that natural compositional change should be incorporated in ecological 13 status assessments based on ancestral baselines. 14 Main Text: 15 Change in species composition through time, called community turnover, is observed in most 16 ecosystems (1-3). Potential drivers include changes in the abiotic environment (4-6), random 17 population fluctuations due to demographic stochasticity (7), and autonomous population dy-18 namics driven by species interactions and dispersal (8, 9). While there exist well-developed 19 bodies of theory describing community turnover due to environmental change (10, 11) and 20 demographic stochasticity (12), our understanding of autonomous compositional change is un-21 derdeveloped. In particular, it remains unclear to what extent observed spatio-temporal patterns 22 in biodiversity may be due to autonomous ecological dynamics. 23If it were known that intrinsic ecological dynamics alone cannot account for observed com-24 2 positional turnover, then abiotic environmental change would be the most plausible explanation 25 (turnover by demographic stochasticity alone is predicted to be orders of magnitude slower than 26 observed (1)). In the current phase of rapid anthropogenic environmental change, any altera-27 tion in the composition of an ecological community should then be interpreted as a potential 28 indicator of stress (13)(14)(15) and the degree of compositional change compared to past baselines 29 a valid measure of anthropogenic impact. 30If, on the other hand, temporal community turnover is a natural phenomenon that can arise 31 independently of changes in the abiotic environment, then observed shifts in the composition 32 of ecological communities would not necessarily imply the presence of external pressures. 33Intrinsic dynamics may even permit ecosystems to adapt and absorb environmental change 34 without impacting ecosystem functioning. Assessments, projections and mitigation strategies 35 would then need to account for such autonomous compositional turnover. 36 So, can communities of many interacting species turn over autonomously? If so, what is 37 the driving mechanism? And does the resulting turnover reproduce patt...

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“…Our non-parametric graph-based approach is not intended to replace the parametric model-based approach. Parametric models are irreplaceable tools to understand priority effects, but non-parametric approaches are more flexible for accommodating different theoretical tools (Arnoldi et al, 2019;Barabás et al, 2018;Pande et al, 2020;Spaak & De Laender, 2020).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Untangling the complexity of priority effects in multispecies communities

2021

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The history of species immigration can dictate how species interact in local communities, thereby causing historical contingency in community assembly. Since immigration history is rarely known, these historical influences, or priority effects, pose a major challenge in predicting community assembly. Here, we provide a graph-based, non-parametric, theoretical framework for understanding the predictability of community assembly as affected by priority effects. To develop this framework, we first show that the diversity of possible priority effects increases super-exponentially with the number of species. We then point out that, despite this diversity, the consequences of priority effects for multispecies communities can be classified into four basic types, each of which reduces community predictability: alternative stable states, alternative transient paths, compositional cycles and the lack of escapes from compositional cycles to stable states. Using a neural network, we show that this classification of priority effects enables accurate explanation of community predictability, particularly when each species immigrates repeatedly. We also demonstrate the empirical utility of our theoretical framework by applying it to two experimentally derived assembly graphs of algal and ciliate communities. Based on these analyses, we discuss how the framework proposed here can help guide experimental investigation of the predictability of historydependent community assembly.

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Fitness and community feedbacks: the two axes that drive long-term invasion impacts

Cited by 6 publications

References 65 publications

Intrinsic ecological dynamics drive biodiversity turnover in model metacommunities

Intrinsic ecological dynamics drive biodiversity turnover in model metacommunities

Intrinsic ecological dynamics drive biodiversity turnover in model metacommunities

Untangling the complexity of priority effects in multispecies communities

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