Five reasons COVID-19 is less severe in younger age-groups

Turke, Paul W.

doi:10.1093/emph/eoaa050

Cited by 12 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 31 publications

(48 reference statements)

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“…In relation to hospital admission rates (0.35%), ICU (0%) and mortality (0%), all values were far lower, significantly, than the population averages. These data do not differ too much from other experiences already published [26][27][28][29] and reinforce the initial plan that vaccination is not a priority in these groups [30][31][32].…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 81%

One Year of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Galicia: A Global View of Age-Group Statistics during Three Waves

Area

Lorenzo

Marcos

et al. 2021

IJERPH

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In this work we look at the past in order to analyze four key variables after one year of the COVID-19 pandemic in Galicia (NW Spain): new infected, hospital admissions, intensive care unit admissions and deceased. The analysis is presented by age group, comparing at each stage the percentage of the corresponding group with its representation in the society. The time period analyzed covers 1 March 2020 to 1 April 2021, and includes the influence of the B.1.1.7 lineage of COVID-19 which in April 2021 was behind 90% of new cases in Galicia. It is numerically shown how the pandemic affects the age groups 80+, 70+ and 60+, and therefore we give information about how the vaccination process could be scheduled and hints at why the pandemic had different effects in different territories.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 81%

One Year of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Galicia: A Global View of Age-Group Statistics during Three Waves

Area

Lorenzo

Marcos

et al. 2021

IJERPH

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“…This study demonstrates that the prevalence of infectious individuals attending events are likely to be higher for events comprised of mostly younger age cohorts. It is worth noting that the impact of infection in these individuals is much lower [30], however, given contact rates within and between different age cohorts [31], higher rates of infection in in younger age groups is likely to lead to increased community incidence and ultimately, transmission to older, higher risk age cohorts.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Potential application of Rapid Antigen Diagnostic Tests for the detection of infectious individuals attending mass gatherings – a simulation study

McAloon

Dahly

Walsh

et al. 2022

Preprint

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Rapid Antigen Diagnostic Tests (RADTs) for the detection of SARS-CoV-2 offer advantages in that they are cheaper and faster than currently used PCR tests but have reduced sensitivity and specificity. One potential application of RADTs is to facilitate gatherings of individuals, through testing of attendees at the point of, or immediately prior to entry at a venue. Understanding the baseline risk in the tested population is of particular importance when evaluating the utility of applying diagnostic tests for screening purposes. We used incidence data to estimate the prevalence of infectious individuals in the community at a particular time point and simulated mass gatherings by sampling from a series of age cohorts. Nine different illustrative scenarios were simulated, small (n=100), medium (n=1000) and large (n=10,000) gatherings each with 3 possible age constructs: mostly younger, mostly older or a gathering with equal numbers from each age cohort. For each scenario, we estimated the prevalence of infectious attendees, then simulated the likely number of positive and negative test results, the proportion of cases detected and the corresponding positive and negative predictive values, and the cost per case identified. Our findings suggest that for each detected individual on a given day, there are likely to be 13.8 additional infectious individuals also present in the community. Prevalence of infectious individuals at events was highest with mostly younger attendees (1.00%), followed by homogenous age gatherings (0.55%) and lowest with mostly older events (0.26%). For small events (100 attendees) the expected number of infectious attendees was less than 1 across all age constructs of attendees. For large events (10,000 attendees) the expected number of infectious attendees ranged from 26 (95% confidence intervals 12 to 45) for mostly older events, to almost 100 (95% confidence intervals 46 to 174) infectious attendees for mostly younger attendees. Given rapid changes in SARS-CoV-2 incidence over time, we developed an RShiny app to allow users to run updated simulations for specific events.

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“…Older age is an especially strong and independent risk factor for hospitalization, mechanical ventilation, and death (Clarfield & Dwolatzky, 2021). Younger people are more likely to have stronger immune systems compared to older people (Turke, 2020). In addition, older adults have more incidences of pre-existing chronic diseases affecting the immune system and therefore the response against the virus (Balboa-Castillo et al, 2021).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Variantes de SARS-CoV-2 y los casos asociados a cuatro olas epidemiológicas en Sinaloa, México

Batista-Roche¹,

Mirabent-Casals

Gómez‐Gil

et al. 2022

TIP RECQB

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La pandemia de COVID-19 es un problema de salud pública que ha revelado las deficiencias y los retos presentes en el funcionamiento de los sistemas hospitalarios del mundo. En México, hasta el momento de finalizar esta recopilación, se han manifestado cuatro “olas epidemiológicas”, cada una dominada por variantes virales con comportamientos diferentes. En este reporte se describe el progreso de la pandemia COVID-19 en la población de Sinaloa, México, durante las cuatro olas epidemiológicas. La información se obtuvo de las bases de datos públicas federales durante el período de marzo del 2020 a febrero del 2022 y los genomas de las variantes de SARS-CoV-2 de interés y preocupación en Sinaloa se tomaron de la base de datos GISAID de enero del 2021 a mayo del 2022. El riesgo relativo (RR) de contraer SARS-CoV-2 fue calculado a partir de documentos públicos. Sinaloa presentó cuatro olas epidemiológicas, entre marzo del 2020 y febrero del 2022, cada una estuvo dominada por variantes diferentes, también en grado de transmisión y severidad. Es un hecho de interés que la variante delta (presente en la tercera ola) fue la más severa, por el alto número de enfermos por día y las altas tasas de mortalidad, a diferencia de la variante omicron (en la cuarta ola) que produjo el mayor número de pacientes por día, pero menores tasas de mortalidad. La mayoría de los contagios por COVID-19 en Sinaloa se presentaron en la población de entre 30 y 45 años de edad, con una edad promedio de los fallecidos superior a los 60 años en todas las olas; estos últimos por ser adultos mayores, fueron más vulnerables que los infantes y las personas más jóvenes, sin embargo, el riesgo relativo (RR) para personas mayores disminuyó en la tercera y cuarta olas. Los hombres mayores de 60 años presentaron un RR más alto que las mujeres de la misma edad. En el transcurso de la pandemia, los cambios de comportamiento del virus se deben a la emergencia de las nuevas variantes y a la respuesta de la población inmunizada. En general, los resultados indican que las variantes (subvariantes o sublinajes) del SARS-CoV-2 cada vez que surgen en lo que se denomina como “una ola”, el grado de severidad y su transmisión es distinta, lo que conlleva a la población a una permanente prevención.

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Five reasons COVID-19 is less severe in younger age-groups

Cited by 12 publications

References 31 publications

One Year of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Galicia: A Global View of Age-Group Statistics during Three Waves

One Year of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Galicia: A Global View of Age-Group Statistics during Three Waves

Potential application of Rapid Antigen Diagnostic Tests for the detection of infectious individuals attending mass gatherings – a simulation study

Variantes de SARS-CoV-2 y los casos asociados a cuatro olas epidemiológicas en Sinaloa, México

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