Objective
To evaluate whether change in fixed location measures of radiographic joint space width (JSW) and in cartilage thickness by MRI predict knee replacement.
Methods
Knees replaced between 36-60 months follow-up (M) in the Osteoarthritis Initiative were each matched with one control by age, sex, and radiographic status. Radiographic JSW was determined from fixed flexion radiographs, and subregional femorotibial cartilage thickness from 3 Tesla MRI. Changes between the annual visit before replacement (T0) and 2 years before T0 (T-2) were compared using conditional logistic regression.
Results
One hundred and nineteen knees from 102 participants (55.5% women; age 64.2±8.7 [mean±SD]) were studied. Fixed location JSW change at 22.5% from medial to lateral differed more between replaced and control knees (case-control [cc] OR=1.57; 95%CI: 1.23,2.01) than minimum medial JSW change (ccOR=1.38; 95%CI: 1.11,1.71). Medial femorotibial cartilage loss displayed discrimination similar to minimum JSW, and central tibial cartilage loss similar to fixed location JSW. Location-independent thinning and thickening scores were both elevated prior to knee replacement.
Conclusions
Discrimination of structural progression between knee pre-placement cases versus controls was stronger for fixed-location than for minimum radiographic JSW. MRI displayed similar discrimination to radiography and suggested greater simultaneous cartilage thickening and loss prior to knee replacement.