Flexibility scores for energy transition pathways: Integrating socio-technical factors in a long-term energy market model

Sheykhha, Siamak; Madlener, Reinhard

doi:10.1016/j.enconman.2022.115327

Cited by 15 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 38 publications

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“…These models were very technical and considered exogenous energy demand projections together with technological availability, efficiency, energy sources, and associated costs in the supply side. GDP and population growth were represented as drivers of energy demand in [64,68,70]. Residential energy demand, in particular, was calculated through exogenous urbanisation rates and household income [58].…”

Section: Supply-demandmentioning

confidence: 99%

review of social dynamics in complex energy systems models

Dall-Orsoletta¹,

Maldonado²,

Dranka³

et al. 2022

IJSEPM

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The problem of techno-economic approaches to evaluating energy transition pathways has been constantly reported in the literature. Existing research recognises the critical role played by social aspects in energy systems models. System dynamics (SD) has been pointed out among modelling techniques as a suitable tool to evaluate the interdisciplinary nature of energy transitions. This paper explores how energy system-related SD models have incorporated social aspects through a literature review. Models were assessed based on their geographical resolution, time horizon, methodological approach, and main themes: supply-demand, energy-economy-environment (3E), energy-transport, water-energy-food (WEF) nexus, and consumer-centric and socio-political dynamics. Social aspects considered include behaviour and lifestyle changes, social acceptance, willingness to participate, socio-economic measures, among others. As expected, the representation of social aspects was not standard among the papers analysed. Socio-economic aspects were most commonly included in supply-demand and 3E models. Energy-transport and WEF models mainly incorporated changes in travel and consumption habits, respectively. The last theme had a more diverse approach to social aspects that deserves further attention, especially for energy access and justice issues. Other research lines include modelling approaches combination, enhanced participatory and transparent processes during model development, and use of SD models in policy-aiding and stakeholders’ information processes.

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Section: Supply-demandmentioning

confidence: 99%

review of social dynamics in complex energy systems models

Dall-Orsoletta¹,

Maldonado²,

Dranka³

et al. 2022

IJSEPM

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Because STET models are informed by a growing body of case studies, they provide important insights about the real-world complexities of energy transition (Holtz et al 2015). Examples of STET models include: the importance of social acceptance in the realistic achievement of a cost-optimal generation portfolio (Cotterman et al 2021), effects of socio-technical factors on electricity grid flexibility (Sheykhha and Madlener 2022), the role of energy industry actors in power decarbonisation (Barazza and Strachan 2020), the importance of timing and strength of leadership from government in energy transition (Li and Strachan 2017), interactions between social learning and technological learning (Edelenbosch et al 2018), and the evolutionary nature of the process of product innovation and diffusion (Mercure 2018).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Socio-technical modelling of UK energy transition under three global SSPs, with implications for IAM scenarios

Freeman

Pye

2022

Environ. Res. Lett.

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The potential for using findings from socio-technical energy transition (STET) models in Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) has been proposed by several authors. A STET simulation model called TEMPEST, which includes the influence of societal and political factors in the UK’s energy transition, is used to model three of the global shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) at the national level. The SSP narratives are interpreted as inputs to TEMPEST, which drive scenario simulations to reflect varying societal preferences for mitigation measures, the level of political support for energy transition, and future economic and population trends. SSP1 and SSP2 come close to meeting net zero targets in 2050 but SSP5 does not reach net zero by 2080. An estimate of the total societal, political, and economic cost of scenarios indicates that while SSP1 achieves the best emissions reductions it also has the highest total cost, and SSP2 achieves the best ratio between rate of emissions reductions and total cost. Feasibility appears to be highest for SSP2 since it is the least different to historical precedent. Current UK government energy strategy is closer to the narrative in SSP5, however, which has the highest total cost and exceeds an estimated carbon budget by 32%. Recommendations for using TEMPEST findings in IAMs include: (i) the uncertainty in emissions savings from variable political and societal support for energy transition, (ii) the influence of societal pushback to policies in achievement of expected policy outcomes, and (iii) introducing additional drivers for future patterns of energy services demand.

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“…This can be achieved by adapting the current infrastructure and deploying system flexibility measures by the intensive use of high-power electronic inverters with the renewable energy power systems and green hydrogen. Given the fact that green hydrogen and system flexibility are still at an early maturity stage, their full contribution to the energy system will be feasible only in the medium to long-term [137,138]. Therefore, coal-fired power plants, hydroelectric power, and nuclear power plants are still necessary to keep system stability.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Energy Crisis in Europe: The European Union’s Objectives and Countries’ Policy Trends—New Transition Paths?

2023

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Amidst the ongoing European energy crisis, the EU has proposed a legislative package to enhance gas independence from Russia, diversify energy supplies, and increase renewable energy targets. However, the urgency for energy security has led some countries to prioritise gas independence over decarbonisation, potentially sacrificing or delaying EU targets. Considering this framework, this article contributes to the body of knowledge by examining the electricity mix of the six most significant EU countries in terms of generation capacity, considers their alignment with 2025 energy transition goals, and analyses the latest legislative trends to evaluate their compatibility with EU objectives. The findings from these analyses indicate that EU members are currently prioritising gas independence, which has led to re-starting or extending the lifespan of coal-fired power plants and an increasing interest in nuclear energy as a low-carbon alternative. These findings have significant implications as they reveal how countries are being steered away from their pre-crisis energy transition paths, resulting in the formation of new perspectives for both the short and long term.

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Flexibility scores for energy transition pathways: Integrating socio-technical factors in a long-term energy market model

Cited by 15 publications

References 38 publications

review of social dynamics in complex energy systems models

review of social dynamics in complex energy systems models

Socio-technical modelling of UK energy transition under three global SSPs, with implications for IAM scenarios

Energy Crisis in Europe: The European Union’s Objectives and Countries’ Policy Trends—New Transition Paths?

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