Flexible flood-duration-frequency modelling: A Bayesian approach

Abstract

Design flood values give estimates of flood magnitude within a given return period and are essential to making adaptive decisions around land use planning, infrastructure design, and disaster mitigation. Many hydrologic applications where flood retention is important, e.g. floodplain management and reservoir design, need design flood values for different durations. Flood-Duration-Frequency (QDF) models extend the standard statistical flood frequency analysis framework to multiple flood durations and are analogous to intensityduration-frequency models for precipitation. Implementations of QDF models commonly assume simple scaling, where only the magnitude of the index flood is assumed to change with duration, despite empirical analyses showing a more complex dependence structure. We propose a multiscaling extension to existing QDF models where the magnitude of the index flood and the slope of the growth curve may scale independently with duration. In an application to 12 locations in Norway, we assess how three different QDF models capture relationships between floods of different duration. Incorporating duration dependency independently in both the index flood and the growth curve improves modeling of both short-duration events and events with long return periods. This model extension further expands the models' ability to simultaneously model a wide range of durations. However, the choice of durations used to fit the QDF model is a highly influential aspect of the modeling process.

Implementasi Pemuridan Transformatif Berbasis Pendidikan Kristen Bagi Generasi Era Digital pada Gereja XYZ di Tangerang

“…Gereja sebagai satu komunitas orang percaya dituntut untuk mengerjakan pemuridan dan menjadikan pemuridan sebagai fokus utama (Ogden 2016, 46) Namun dalam kenyataannya gereja tampaknya belum mengerjakan pemuridan secara serius. Survei yang dilakukan Barna pada tahun 2021 terhadap orang Kristen di Amerika menyatakan bahwa dua dari tiga responden tidak terlibat dalam pemuridan (Barna 2022). Terdapat banyak penyebab mengapa pemuridan tidak menjadi pusat dari pelayanan gereja seperti masalah-masalah terkait dampak, visi, penundukan diri, akuntabilitas, kerapuhan, pengakuan, pembelajaran, pengorbanan dan disiplin (Hull 2014, 20).…”