Flood footprint assessment: a new approach for flood-induced indirect economic impact measurement and post-flood recovery

Zeng, Zhao; Guan, Dabo; Steenge, A.E.; Xia, Yang; Mendoza-Tinoco, David

doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.124204

Cited by 46 publications

(28 citation statements)

References 36 publications

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“…We made simple assumptions that 1% capital loss will reduce 1% productivity immediately, and lead to 1% loss of production; and all the individual firms in one industry share the same damage ratio. Although such assumptions are adopted by several previous studies [25,27], the relationships between the capital damage and productivity should be considered more accurately in specific real events. Before the subsequent event occurs (1 ≤ t < m), remaining production under capital limitations (x t cap ) at period t is shown as equation (2.7), whereα 1 t is the diagonal matrix of industrial damage fractions at time t.…”

Section: (I) Capital Limitationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This research constructs an input-output (IO)-based robust methodology (flood footprint model) for IFF accounting, both mathematically and logistically, in which the approach is able to quantify combined indirect economic impacts resulting from a single or multiple sudden-onset storm sequence by capturing industrial and regional interdependencies and incorporating certain factors such as damaged capital and affected labour [27]. This study focuses on the methodology which can be applied when multiple successive flood events occur and a hypothetical two-flood case is used to test the flexibility and feasibility of the model, while several insights into the influence of the subsequent disasters on the economy and of the impact from external assistance on post-flood economic recovery are offered as well.…”

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confidence: 99%

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Methodology and application of flood footprint accounting in a hypothetical multiple two-flood event

Zeng

Guan

2020

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A.

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Multiple natural disasters are becoming ever more frequent around the world, with both climate change and rapid urbanization increasing the risk of such disasters in human society. Comprehensive analysis of the economic impact of multiple disasters on the industrial and economic system has become an urgent and essential part of urban recovery and sustainable development. However, there is a lack of studies that focus on assessing the indirect economic impacts resulting from such multiple events, and thereafter providing a common quantitative approach within their assessment. With the concept of flood footprint and input–output theory, this study proposes a more externally oriented methodology (flood footprint model) for indirect flood footprint (IFF) accounting and offers various extensive sensitivity analyses based on a hypothetical two-flood event. Based on the two-flood case, we conclude that the total flood footprint of a multi-flood within a given region is larger than the sum of individual flood footprints and this is the same for the IFF due to the combination effect, while the flood footprint is highly constrained by factors such as occurrence time and physical damage caused by the ensuing disaster. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Urban flood resilience'.

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Section: (I) Capital Limitationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Methodology and application of flood footprint accounting in a hypothetical multiple two-flood event

Zeng

Guan

2020

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A.

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“…Differences in the strictness of such policies and the rapidity with which jurisdictions have imposed and relaxed the policies reflect divergent (and perhaps hasty) assessments of both the public health risk of COVID-19 and the social and economic impacts of the different policies 6,7 . Using a newly developed economic disaster model [8][9][10] , we quantitatively assess the short-run supply-chain effects of different containment strategies across countries and industry sectors to inform ongoing efforts to contain COVID-19 and to reveal more generally how pandemic-related economic losses will be distributed along global supply chains.…”

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confidence: 99%

Global supply-chain effects of COVID-19 control measures

et al. 2020

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Countries have sought to stop the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) by severely restricting travel and in-person commercial activities. Here, we analyse the supply-chain effects of a set of idealized lockdown scenarios, using the latest global trade modelling framework. We find that supply-chain losses that are related to initial COVID-19 lockdowns are largely dependent on the number of countries imposing restrictions and that losses are more sensitive to the duration of a lockdown than its strictness. However, a longer containment that can eradicate the disease imposes a smaller loss than shorter ones. Earlier, stricter and shorter lockdowns can minimize overall losses. A 'go-slow' approach to lifting restrictions may reduce overall damages if it avoids the need for further lockdowns. Regardless of the strategy, the complexity of global supply chains will magnify losses beyond the direct effects of COVID-19. Thus, pandemic control is a public good that requires collective efforts and support to lower-capacity countries.

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“…Differences in the rapidity with which countries imposed such policies and the strictness of the policies reflect divergent (and perhaps hasty) assessments of both the public health risk of COVID-19 and the social and economic impacts of the different policies 6,7 . Here, using a newly-developed disaster footprint model [8][9][10] , we quantitatively assess the economic impacts of different containment strategies across countries and industry sectors in order to both inform ongoing efforts to contain COVID-19 and to reveal more generally how pandemic-related economic losses will be distributed along global supply chains.…”

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confidence: 99%

Global economic footprint of the COVID-19 pandemic

Guan

Wang

Hallegatte

et al. 2020

Preprint

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Countries around the world have sought to stop the spread of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) by severely restricting travel and in-person commercial activities. Here, we analyse the economic footprint of such “lockdowns” using detailed datasets of global supply chains and a set of pandemic scenarios. We find that COVID-related economic losses are largely dependent on the number of countries imposing lockdowns, and that losses are more sensitive to the duration of a lockdown that its strictness—suggesting that more severe restrictions can reduce economic damages if they successfully shorten the duration of a lockdown. Our results also highlight several key vulnerabilities in global supply chains: Even countries that are not directly affected by COVID-19 can experience large losses (e.g., >20% of their GDP)—with such cascading impacts often occurring in low- and middle-income countries. Open and highly-specialized economies suffer particularly large losses (e.g., energy-exporting Central Asian countries or tourism-focused Caribbean countries). Supply bottlenecks and declines in consumer demand lead to especially large losses in globalized sectors such as electronics (production decreases of 13-53% across our scenarios) and automobiles (2-49%). Although retrospective analyses will undoubtedly provide further policy-relevant insights, our findings already imply that earlier, stricter, and thus shorter lockdowns are likely to minimize overall economic damages, and that global supply chains will magnify economic losses in some countries and industry sectors regardless of direct effects of the coronavirus.

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Flood footprint assessment: a new approach for flood-induced indirect economic impact measurement and post-flood recovery

Cited by 46 publications

References 36 publications

Methodology and application of flood footprint accounting in a hypothetical multiple two-flood event

Methodology and application of flood footprint accounting in a hypothetical multiple two-flood event

Global supply-chain effects of COVID-19 control measures

Global economic footprint of the COVID-19 pandemic

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