Flood forecasting on the Tocantins River using ensemble rainfall forecasts and real‐time satellite rainfall estimates

Fan, Fernando Mainardi; Collischonn, Walter; Quiroz, K.J.; Sorribas, Mino Viana; Buarque, Diogo Costa; Siqueira, Vinícius Alencar

doi:10.1111/jfr3.12177

Cited by 56 publications

(40 citation statements)

References 25 publications

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“…The choice of MGB for this study was motivated by several past applications in South America (Allasia et al, 2006), which encompassed rapid response (e.g., Collischonn et 15 al., 2005, Siqueira et al, 2016a to markedly seasonal and often slow response basins (e.g., Bravo et al, 2012;Paiva et al, 2013;Fan et al, 2016;Pontes et al, 2017). In its most recent version, basins are divided into unit-catchments (Paiva et al, 2011;Pontes et al, 2017), each one containing a single river reach with associated floodplain and hydrological vertical water Surface runoff is produced using the variable contribution area concept following the Arno model (Todini, 1996), while groundwater and subsurface flows are computed, respectively, with linear and nonlinear functions according to water availability in the soil layer.…”

Section: Model Descriptionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Herein, we used the 400-m resolution HRU merged product (soil + land use) for South America (Fan et al, 2015), which is available at https://www.ufrgs.br/lsh. Basically, the soil map is a combination of the Brazilian database RADAMBrasil and the FAO Digitized Soil Map of the World and Derived Soil Properties, the latter included to account for areas lying outside Brazil.…”

Section: Land Use and Soil Data 20mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Toward continental hydrologic–hydrodynamic modeling in South America

Paiva¹,

Siqueira²,

Fleischmann³

et al. 2018

Preprint

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Abstract. Providing reliable estimates of streamflow and hydrological fluxes is a major challenge for water resources management over national and transnational basins in South America. Global hydrological models and land surface models are a possible solution to simulate the terrestrial water cycle at the continental scale, but issues on parameterization and limitations in representing lowland river systems put into question their utility for basin-scale analysis and to deliver daily 15 discharges to meet local needs. In an attempt to overcome such limitations, we extended a regional, fully coupled hydrologic-hydrodynamic model (MGB) to the continental domain of South America and assessed its performance using daily river discharges, water levels from independent sources (in situ, satellite altimetry), estimates of terrestrial water storage (TWS) and evapotranspiration (ET) from remote sensing and other available global datasets. In addition, river discharges were compared with outputs from global models acquired through the eartH2Observe project (HTESSEL/CaMa-20 Flood, LISFLOOD and WaterGAP3), providing the first cross-scale assessment (regional/continental  global models) that makes use of spatially consistent daily discharge data. A satisfactory representation of discharges and water levels was obtained (NSE > 0.6 in 55 % of the cases) and MGB was able to capture patterns of seasonality and magnitude of TWS and ET especially over the largest basins of South America. Continental-scale modeling significantly improved discharge estimates when compared with global models, which resulted in a large number of gauges with negative (or close to 0) NSE 25 values. Models were largely affected by positive bias mainly over East/Northeast Brazil and Argentina as well as over regions of Sao Francisco and Parnaiba basins, while major issues on flow timing were observed in regions affected by floodplain processes such as the Amazon, La Plata, Tocantins-Araguaia, Orinoco and Magdalena basins. We state that efforts in calibrating rainfall-runoff parameters within large basins are necessary to simulate daily river discharges appropriately in this continent, but implementing a hydrodynamic routing component is also important. We hope that our 30 study provides further insights about hydrological simulation in South America, helping to reduce the gap between global and regional hydrological modeling communities.Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi

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Section: Model Descriptionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Land Use and Soil Data 20mentioning

confidence: 99%

Toward continental hydrologic–hydrodynamic modeling in South America

Paiva¹,

Siqueira²,

Fleischmann³

et al. 2018

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…The MGB-IPH model has an empirical data assimilation method coupled to updated streamflow by using routing module by Muskingum Cunge (PAZ et al, 2007;COLLISCHONN et al, 2005;COLLISCHONN et al, 2007b;TUCCI et al, 2006). The usefulness of this empirical model was demonstrated for reservoir inflow predictions based on quantitative precipitation forecast (COLLISCHONN et al, 2005;COLLISCHONN et al, 2007b) and flood forecasting using ensemble rainfall forecasts (FAN et al, 2014;FAN et al, 2016). A complete description of the empirical assimilation methodology can be found in the above mentioned articles.…”

Section: Methodology Distributed Mgb-iph Hydrological Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Research presented by Paz et al (2007), Collischonn et al (2005), Collischonn et al (2007b and Fan et al (2014) showed an empirical method of data assimilation for flood forecasting analyses in operational systems of inflows to the reservoirs. However, those techniques only allow assimilating the streamflow in rivers.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Data assimilation using the ensemble Kalman filter in a distributed hydrological model on the Tocantins River, Brasil

Jiménez

Collischonn

Paiva

2019

RBRH

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In this work, the data assimilation method namely ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is applied to the Tocantins River basin. This method assimilates streamflow results by using a distributed hydrological model. The performance of the EnKF is also compared with an empirical assimilation method for hourly time intervals, in which two applications based on information transfer from gauged to ungauged sites and real time streamflow forecasting are assessed. In the first application, both assimilation methods are able to transfer streamflow to ungauged sites, obtaining better results when more than one station located upstream or downstream of the basin are gauged. In the second application, integration of a real time forecast model with EnKF is able to absorb errors at the beginning of the forecast. Therefore, a greater efficiency in the Nash-Sutcliffe index for the first 144 hours in advance in relation to its counterpart without assimilation is obtained. Finally, a comparison between both data assimilation methods shows a greater advantage for the EnKF in long lead times.

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“…Studies that use the EPS technique for probabilistic streamflow forecasting are relatively new in Brazil. Fan, Schwanenberg, Collischonn, and Weerts (); Fan et al (, ) assessed the performances of three‐month seasonal forecasts in the upper São Francisco, Tocantins and Doce River basins in terms of their ability to predict reservoir inflow for management purposes using different EPS numerical models. In terms of short‐term flood forecasts, Siqueira, Collischonn, Fan, and Chou () and Casagrande, Tomasella, dos Santos Alvalá, Bottino, and Caram () tested the feasibility of the regional Eta model EPS in the Taquari Antas and Itajaí‐Açu basins, respectively, and concluded that the flood forecasts can be improved by using the EPS technique, mainly in terms of the lead time.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Probabilistic flood forecasting in the Doce Basin in Brazil: Effects of the basin scale and orientation and the spatial distribution of rainfall

Tomasella

Gonçalves

Falck

et al. 2018

J Flood Risk Management

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We critically examined the performance of probabilistic streamflow forecasting in the prediction of flood events in 19 subbasins of the Doce River in Brazil using the Eta (4 members, 5 km spatial resolution) and European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF; 51 members, 32 km resolution) weather forecast models as inputs for the MHD‐INPE hydrological model. We observed that the shapes and orientations of subbasins influenced the predictability of floods due to the orientation of rainfall events. Streamflow forecasts that use the ECMWF data as input showed higher skill scores than those that used the Eta model for subbasins with drainage areas larger than 20,000 km2. Since the skill scores were similar for both models in smaller subbasins, we concluded that the grid size of the weather model could be important for smaller catchments, while the number of members was crucial for larger scales. We also evaluated the performance of probabilistic streamflow forecasting for the severe flood event of late 2013 through a comparison of observations and streamflow estimations derived from interpolated rainfall fields. In many cases, the mean of the ensemble outperformed the streamflow estimations from the interpolated rainfall because the spatial structure of a rainfall event is better captured by weather forecast models.

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Flood forecasting on the Tocantins River using ensemble rainfall forecasts and real‐time satellite rainfall estimates

Cited by 56 publications

References 25 publications

Toward continental hydrologic–hydrodynamic modeling in South America

Toward continental hydrologic–hydrodynamic modeling in South America

Data assimilation using the ensemble Kalman filter in a distributed hydrological model on the Tocantins River, Brasil

Probabilistic flood forecasting in the Doce Basin in Brazil: Effects of the basin scale and orientation and the spatial distribution of rainfall

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