Flood-Induced Displacement and Civil Conflict

Ghimire, Ramesh; Ferreira, Susana; Dorfman, Jeffrey H.

doi:10.1016/j.worlddev.2014.09.021

Cited by 92 publications

(46 citation statements)

References 53 publications

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“…Besides, climate change will increase flood probabilities and the magnitude of floods [2]. Floods are related to social-civil conflicts [3], environmental problems [4] and economic losses [5]. The Llanos de Moxos located in the Bolivian Amazonia are an example of floodplains that continually suffer severe flood events causing environmental, economic and social damages.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Application of 2D numerical simulation for the analysis of the February 2014 Bolivian Amazonia flood: Application of the new HEC-RAS version 5

Quirogaa

Kurea

Udoa

et al. 2016

Ribagua

192

111

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a b s t r a c tLlanos de Moxos are vast plains in the Bolivian Amazonia that are continually flooded by the Mamore river. The flood lasts for several days affecting important cities like Trinidad, drowning people, drowning cattle and swamping arable land. Because of the cloudy skies, remote sensing observations are limited to some areas and few days. Thus, there is huge uncertainty about characteristics of flood events and possible consequences. Two-dimensional (2D) numerical simulation proved to be an important tool for understanding flood events. The HEC-RAS model is one of the most popular hydraulic models. In 2014 a new version of HEC-RAS (HEC-RAS-v5) was released including 2D capabilities. The present study applied the new HEC-RAS-v5 to simulate the February 2014 flood event in the Bolivian Amazonia. The flood simulated shows good performance when compared with satellite image of the flood event. In addition, the simulation provides information like water depth, flow velocity and a temporal variation of the flood. Specific locations where water begins to overflow were identified. Over most of the flooded area the water velocity is lower than 0.25 m s −1 . During first ten days of the flood the flood extent increases rapidly. The flood depth allows identifying areas exposed to different hazard levels. The west plain of the Mamore river is the most exposed to the flood; it shows bigger flood extent, longer flood duration and deeper water depth. The flood that threatens the city of Trinidad originates in two locations; one located 32 km at the north and other located 10 km at the south west. The flood from the north gets close to Trinidad twelve days after it begins to overflow, while the flood from the south gets close to Trinidad seven days after it begins to overflow. Although the flood from the north is deeper than the flood from the south, the flood from the south begins flooded before the north. Thus, water borne and vector borne diseases may originate at the south earlier than the north. The city of San Javier gets covered by flood five days after the water begins to overflow. The study shows the applicability and the value of the 2D capabilities of the new HEC-RAS for flood studies. Llanos de Moxos son planicies de inundación en la Amazonia Boliviana que constantemente son inundadas por el río Mamore. Las inundaciones se prolongan durante varios días afectando importantes ciudades como Trinidad, ahogando gente, ahogando ganado e inundando cultivos. La visibilidad de imá-genes satelitales se ve limitada debido a la nubosidad. Por tal motivo se tiene un gran desconocimiento sobre las características de la inundación y sus posibles consecuencias. Simulación numérica bidimensional (2D) es una importante herramienta para simular y analizar inundaciones. El modelo HEC-RAS es * Corresponding author. uno de los más populares modelos hidráulicos. En octubre de 2014 la última versión de HEC-RAS versión 5 fue publicada con capacidades 2D. El presente estudio aplicó el nuevo HEC-RAS versión 5 para simular la inund...

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Application of 2D numerical simulation for the analysis of the February 2014 Bolivian Amazonia flood: Application of the new HEC-RAS version 5

Quirogaa

Kurea

Udoa

et al. 2016

Ribagua

192

111

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…The first column "IV-approach" represents instrumental variable approaches or related indirect tests (Structural equations modeling, Boolean logit) that use weather or disaster measures to predict intermediate mechanisms that in turn are hypothesized to increase the risk of conflict. For the specific channels, both studies testing the effect of disasters on displacement find full or partial support [44,45] as does the study on instrumenting material destruction's effect on conflict [46]. Another study on material damage and terrorism also finds an effect using an IV-strategy to address endogeneity concerns [47], not in Table 1.…”

Section: Empirical Studies 2014-2017mentioning

confidence: 89%

“…Although not implying consensus on weather shocks driving collective violence via these channels, it illustrates that contrary results are unlikely. Both panels A and B show that civil conflicts are not triggered by weather shocks even if modeled according to specific theoretical mechanisms such as food production [15], economic growth [56], disaster destruction [46], or migration [44]. For civil conflict incidence, intensity, and in particular, other more loosely organized forms of violence (excluding communal conflicts), there is some evidence of consensus.…”

Section: Empirical Studies 2014-2017mentioning

confidence: 98%

Climate Change and Violence: Insights from Political Science

Theisen

2017

Curr Clim Change Rep

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Purpose of Review The aim of this review is to understand the state of the art of research related to climate change and collectively organized violence from a broad political science perspective. Recent Findings An increasing share of quantitative studies find a link between weather anomalies and violence for some forms of violence, but the directions are not always consistent and the mechanisms are not satisfactorily understood. Nonnaturalist scholars note important reservations. Summary Important improvements have been made during the last few years, but much remains to conclude that climate change will increase the risk of violence. An increased focus on the political consequences of adaptation and mitigation is needed.

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“…This situation can create distrust between migrants and locals and intensify ethnic tensions if they belong to different ethnic groups (Suhrke, 1997;Reuveny, 2007). In addition to much anecdotal evidence, 4 findings in Ghimire et al (2015) support this transmission channel.…”

Section: Floods and Security: Theoretical Connectionsmentioning

confidence: 92%

Floods and armed conflict

Ghimire

Ferreira

2015

Envir. Dev. Econ.

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We estimate the impact of large, catastrophic floods on internal armed conflict using global data on large floods between 1985 and 2009. The results suggest that while large floods did not ignite new conflict, they fueled existing armed conflicts. Floods and armed conflict are endogenously determined, and we show that empirically addressing this endogeneity is important. The estimated effects of floods on conflict prevalence are substantially larger in specifications that control for the endogeneity of floods, suggesting that treating natural disasters as exogenous phenomena may underestimate their impacts on sociopolitical outcomes.

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Flood-Induced Displacement and Civil Conflict

Cited by 92 publications

References 53 publications

Application of 2D numerical simulation for the analysis of the February 2014 Bolivian Amazonia flood: Application of the new HEC-RAS version 5

Application of 2D numerical simulation for the analysis of the February 2014 Bolivian Amazonia flood: Application of the new HEC-RAS version 5

Climate Change and Violence: Insights from Political Science

Floods and armed conflict

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