Flood inundation uncertainty: The case of a 0.5% annual probability flood event

Prime, Thomas; Brown, Jennifer M.; Plater, Andy

doi:10.1016/j.envsci.2016.01.018

Cited by 41 publications

(36 citation statements)

References 19 publications

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“…This study quantified uncertainty in terms of flood hazard and inundation extent from various H s -WL scenarios with the same annual joint probability for a gravel beach morphology and found that the greatest flood hazard is posed by a swell wave regime under high water levels [17]. However, this conclusion is heavily dependent on the prevailing wave climate and cannot be safely extrapolated to areas, such as the Irish Sea, that are wind wave dominant.…”

Section: Flood Risk Modellingmentioning

confidence: 88%

“…Previous research has primarily been concerned with exploring the impact of a joint probability distribution on inundation extent and flood hazard [17] without comparing the impact of various morphological settings to account for various models that may be applied by coastal managers. Hydrodynamic factors have been applied in a coastal flood forecasting system that parametrised beach levels using canonical correlation analysis (CCA) according to the incident wave conditions [52].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…It is necessary to consider the joint probability of the two variables in flood risk management and coastal engineering, as it provides a more realistic understanding of a defence's resilience under various H s -WL combinations, which together have the same probability of occurrence. Noticeable differences in inundation extent and flood hazard can arise from different H s -WL combinations, that have the same probability of occurrence [17]. Therefore, a joint probability approach is more suitable for flood risk assessment when compared with independent, univariate consideration of H s and WL.…”

Section: Flood Risk Modellingmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…More recent improvements in accounting for storm-driven changes in beach morphodynamics in academic studies have moved beyond assuming a fixed beach profile, for example with SWAB (Shallow Water and Boussinesq, developed by [33]) [34], to accounting for gravel barrier response using XBeach-G [17]. This study quantified uncertainty in terms of flood hazard and inundation extent from various H s -WL scenarios with the same annual joint probability for a gravel beach morphology and found that the greatest flood hazard is posed by a swell wave regime under high water levels [17].…”

Section: Flood Risk Modellingmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Role of Beach Morphology in Wave Overtopping Hazard Assessment

Phillips

Brown

Bidlot

et al. 2017

JMSE

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Understanding the role of beach morphology in controlling wave overtopping volume will further minimise uncertainties in flood risk assessments at coastal locations defended by engineered structures worldwide. XBeach is used to model wave overtopping volume for a 1:200 year joint probability distribution of waves and water levels with measured, pre-and post-storm beach profiles. The simulation with measured bathymetry is repeated with and without morphological evolution enabled during the modelled storm event. This research assesses the role of morphology in controlling wave overtopping volumes for hazardous events that meet the typical design level of coastal defence structures. Results show that disabling storm-driven morphology under-represents modelled wave overtopping volumes by up to 39% under high H s conditions and has a greater impact on the wave overtopping rate than the variability applied within the boundary conditions due to the range of wave-water level combinations that meet the 1:200 year joint probability criterion. Accounting for morphology in flood modelling is therefore critical for accurately predicting wave overtopping volumes and the resulting flood hazard and to assess economic losses.

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Section: Flood Risk Modellingmentioning

confidence: 88%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Flood Risk Modellingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Flood Risk Modellingmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Role of Beach Morphology in Wave Overtopping Hazard Assessment

Phillips

Brown

Bidlot

et al. 2017

JMSE

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“…This knowledge is of significance to operational modelling for local predictions and flood hazard assessments. However, sources of coastal flood hazard are not just limited to the contributions of astronomical tide and storm surges to water level, but also wave run-up and overwashing or overtopping, driven by coincidental sea state (Prime et al 2016). Locally-generated wind waves and propagating swell waves, generated by an offshore storm, which coincide with an extreme water level can increase flood hazard at the coast (Wolf 2009;Pye and Blott 2010).…”

Section: Implications For Local Management Needs In the Severn Estuarmentioning

confidence: 99%

Flood Hazard Assessment for a Hyper-Tidal Estuary as a Function of Tide-Surge-Morphology Interaction

Lyddon

Brown

Leonardi

et al. 2018

Estuaries and Coasts

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Astronomical high tides and meteorological storm surges present a combined flood hazard to communities and infrastructure. There is a need to incorporate the impact of tide-surge interaction and the spatial and temporal variability of the combined flood hazard in flood risk assessments, especially in hyper-tidal estuaries where the consequences of tide and storm surge concurrence can be catastrophic. Delft3D-FLOW is used to assess up-estuary variability in extreme water levels for a range of historical events of different severity within the Severn Estuary, southwest England as an example. The influence of the following on flood hazard is investigated: (i) event severity, (ii) timing of the peak of a storm surge relative to tidal high water and (iii) the temporal distribution of the storm surge component (here in termed the surge skewness). Results show when modelling a local area event severity is most important control on flood hazard. Tide-surge concurrence increases flood hazard throughout the estuary. Positive surge skewness can result in a greater variability of extreme water levels and residual surge component, the effects of which are magnified up-estuary by estuarine geometry to exacerbate flood hazard. The concepts and methodology shown here can be applied to other estuaries worldwide.

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Sea‐level rise impacts on the temporal and spatial variability of extreme water levels: A case study for St. Peter‐Ording, Germany

2017

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Both the temporal and spatial variability of storm surge water level (WL) curves are usually not taken into account in flood risk assessments as observational data are often scarce. In addition, sea‐level rise (SLR) can further affect the variability of WLs. We analyze the temporal and spatial variability of the WL curve of 75 historical storm surge events that have been numerically simulated for St. Peter‐Ording at the German North Sea coast, considering the effects induced by three SLR scenarios (RCP 4.5, RCP 8.5, and a RCP 8.5 high end scenario). We assess potential impacts of these scenarios on two parameters related to flooding: overflow volumes and fullness. Our results indicate that due to both the temporal and spatial variability of those events the resulting overflow volume can be two or even three times greater. We observe a steepening of the WL curve with an increase of the tidal range under the three SLR scenarios, although SLR induced effects are relatively higher for the RCP 4.5. The steepening of the WL curve with SLR produces a reduction of the fullness, but the changes in overflow volumes also depend on the magnitude of the storm surge event.

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Flood inundation uncertainty: The case of a 0.5% annual probability flood event

Cited by 41 publications

References 19 publications

Role of Beach Morphology in Wave Overtopping Hazard Assessment

Role of Beach Morphology in Wave Overtopping Hazard Assessment

Flood Hazard Assessment for a Hyper-Tidal Estuary as a Function of Tide-Surge-Morphology Interaction

Sea‐level rise impacts on the temporal and spatial variability of extreme water levels: A case study for St. Peter‐Ording, Germany

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