Abstract. Ephemeral streams are highly dependent on rainfall and terrain
characteristics and, therefore, very sensitive to minor changes in these
environments. The western Mediterranean area exhibits a highly irregular
precipitation regime with a great variety of rainfall events driving the
flow generation on intermittent watercourses, and future climate change
scenarios depict a lower magnitude and higher intensity of precipitation in
this area, potentially leading to severe changes in flows. We explored the
rainfall–runoff relationships in two semi-arid watersheds in southern Spain
(Algeciras and Upper Mula) to model the different types of rainfall events
required to generate new flow in both intermittent streams. We used a
non-linear approach through generalized additive models at event scale in
terms of magnitude, duration, and intensity, contextualizing resulting
thresholds in a long-term perspective through the calculation of return
periods. Results showed that the average ∼ 1.2 d and
< 1.5 mm event was not enough to create new flows. At least a 4 d
event ranging from 4 to 20 mm, depending on the watershed, was needed to
ensure new flow at a high probability (95 %). While these thresholds
represented low return periods, the great irregularity of annual
precipitation and rainfall characteristics makes prediction highly
uncertain. Almost a third of the rainfall events resulted in similar flow to or
lower flow than the previous day, emphasizing the importance of lithological and
terrain characteristics that lead to differences in flow generation between
the watersheds.