Flood risk assessment for urban water system in a changing climate using artificial neural network

Abdellatif, Mawada; Atherton, William; Alkhaddar, Rafid; Osman, Yassin Z.

doi:10.1007/s11069-015-1892-6

Cited by 36 publications

(20 citation statements)

References 33 publications

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“…The potential impacts of future climate change on current urban drainage systems have received increasing attention during recent decades because of the devastating impacts of urban flooding on the economy and society (Chang et al, 2013;Zhou et al, 2012;Abdellatif et al, 2015). However, few studies have explored the role of both climate change mitigation and drainage adaptations in coping with urban flooding in a changing climate.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, the design of drainage systems is often based on historical precipitation statistics for a certain period of time, without considering the potential changes in precipitation extremes for the designed return periods (Yazdanfar and Sharma, 2015;Peng et al, 2015;Zahmatkesh et al, 2015). It is likely that drainage systems would be over-whelmed by additional runoff induced by climate change, which may lead to increased flood frequency and magnitude, disruption of transportation systems, and increased health risks (Chang et al, 2013;Abdellatif et al, 2015). For example, Arnbjerg-Nielsen (2012) reported that the design intensities in Denmark are projected to increase by 10-50 % for return periods ranging from 2 to 100 years.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Impacts of future climate change on urban flood volumes in Hohhot in northern China: benefits of climate change mitigation and adaptations

Zhou

Leng

Huang

2018

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. As China becomes increasingly urbanised, flooding has become a regular occurrence in its major cities. Assessing the effects of future climate change on urban flood volumes is crucial to informing better management of such disasters given the severity of the devastating impacts of flooding (e.g. the 2016 flooding events across China). Although recent studies have investigated the impacts of future climate change on urban flooding, the effects of both climate change mitigation and adaptation have rarely been accounted for together in a consistent framework. In this study, we assess the benefits of mitigating climate change by reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and locally adapting to climate change by modifying drainage systems to reduce urban flooding under various climate change scenarios through a case study conducted in northern China. The urban drainage model – Storm Water Management Model – was used to simulate urban flood volumes using current and two adapted drainage systems (i.e. pipe enlargement and low-impact development, LID), driven by bias-corrected meteorological forcing from five general circulation models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 archive. Results indicate that urban flood volume is projected to increase by 52 % over 2020–2040 compared to the volume in 1971–2000 under the business-as-usual scenario (i.e. Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5). The magnitudes of urban flood volumes are found to increase nonlinearly with changes in precipitation intensity. On average, the projected flood volume under RCP 2.6 is 13 % less than that under RCP 8.5, demonstrating the benefits of global-scale climate change mitigation efforts in reducing local urban flood volumes. Comparison of reduced flood volumes between climate change mitigation and local adaptation (by improving drainage systems) scenarios suggests that local adaptation is more effective than climate change mitigation in reducing future flood volumes. This has broad implications for the research community relative to drainage system design and modelling in a changing environment. This study highlights the importance of accounting for local adaptation when coping with future urban floods.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of future climate change on urban flood volumes in Hohhot in northern China: benefits of climate change mitigation and adaptations

Zhou

Leng

Huang

2018

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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“…In recent year, more and more studies on the improvement/adaptation of existing drainage systems in response to climate change have emerged (Chang et al, 2013;Zhou et al, 2012;Abdellatif et al, 2015). Despite these efforts on examining the climate change impacts on urban drainage systems, limited attention has been paid to the joint analyses on urban flooding risks associated GHG mitigation and adaptation measures in a changing climate.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For example, in Danish design guidelines for urban drainage, a delta change of 0.3 and 0.4 are recommended for the 10and 100-year return period respectively with an anticipated technical life time of 100 years (Arnbjerg-Nielsen, 2012). The systems are likely to be overwhelmed by the additional runoff effects induced by climate change which may lead to flood damages, disruptions of transportation systems, and increased human health risks (Chang et al, 2013;Abdellatif et al, 2015). This necessitates examining the system performance in response to non-stationary changes of future hydroclimate in terms of both frequency and magnitude and the consequent flood damages (Mishra, 2015;Karamouz et al, 2013;Yazdanfar and Sharma, 2015;Notaro et al, 2015).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of future climate change on urban flood risks: benefits of climate mitigation and adaptations

Zhou

Leng

Huang

2016

Preprint

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Abstract. As China is urbanized, flooding has become a regular feature in major cities. Assessing potential urban flood risks under climate change has become crucial for better managing such risks given the severity of the devastating disasters (e.g., the current 2016 flooding across China). Although the impacts of future climate change on urban flood risks have been investigated in many existing studies, the effects of both climate mitigation and adaptations have rarely been accounted for in a consistent framework. In this study, we assess the benefits of (1) avoided greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and (2) adapting drainage systems on urban flood risks within the context of global warming through a case study in the Northern China. The urban drainage model, Storm Water Management Model (SWMM), was employed to simulate urban floods under current conditions and two feasible adaptation scenarios (i.e., pipe enlargement and low impact development), driven by bias-corrected meteorological forcing from five general circulation models (GCMs) in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) archive Based on the results, the volume of urban floods is projected to increase by 52 % in the period of 2020–2040 when compared to that in 1971–2000 under the business-as-usual scenario (i.e., Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 8.5). The magnitudes of urban floods are found to increase nonlinearly with changes in precipitation intensity, and highest risks associated with floods with smaller return periods below 10 years are identified. Despite the high level of uncertainty, it is obvious that avoided greenhouse emissions will be beneficial in terms of reducing risks associated with urban floods. On average, the magnitude of projected urban floods under RCP 2.6 is 13 % less than that under RCP8.5, demonstrating the importance of global-scale efforts on GHG emission reduction in regulating local to regional hydrometeorological responses. Moreover, the two feasible adaptation scenarios are shown to be able to further reduce risk associated with floods effectively. This study highlights the importance of accounting for local climate adaptation efforts in assessing urban flood risks under a changing climate.

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“…Ashley et al [17] analyzed the current and future pressure on planning, design, operation, and maintenance of urban drainage infrastructures in the UK. More recently, Adbellatif et al [18] carried out an assessment of climate change impact of flood risk in an urban drainage catchment located in Northwestern England, using an artificial neural network (ANN) downscaling technique to obtain local scale future rainfall from three coarse scale general circulation models (GCM). In Belgium, Willems et al [19] simulated the effects of climate change on sewer overflow frequencies using a continuous simulation reservoir-based model.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Quantifying the Uncertainty Related to Climate Change in the Assessment of Urban Flooding—A Case Study

Liuzzo¹,

Freni²

2019

Water

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Recent studies have pointed out that climate change is likely to have important implications on the extent and frequency of flooding events. Indeed, the intensification of the water cycle occurring in different areas of the world can dramatically affect the incidence of extreme events and, consequently, the flow in rivers or artificial channels, increasing the probability of disastrous floods. In this context, the criteria for the assessment of flood risk need to be improved to take into account the variability of rainfall due to climate change. In this study, a Bayesian procedure was used to update the parameters of the depth–duration–frequency (DDF) curves and quantify the uncertainty related to their assessment in some climate change scenarios. The critical storm obtained from these updated DDF curves was used as input for the FLO-2D hydraulic model, in order to investigate the effects of climate change on flood risk. The area of study was an urban catchment in Piazza Armerina, a small town located in Southern Italy. Results showed that rainfall variations remarkably affect not only the magnitude of flood events, but also the flood susceptibility of the study area.

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Flood risk assessment for urban water system in a changing climate using artificial neural network

Abstract: The version presented here may differ from the published version or from the version of the record. Please see the repository URL above for details on accessing the published version and note that access may require a subscription.

Cited by 36 publications

References 33 publications

Impacts of future climate change on urban flood volumes in Hohhot in northern China: benefits of climate change mitigation and adaptations

Impacts of future climate change on urban flood volumes in Hohhot in northern China: benefits of climate change mitigation and adaptations

Impacts of future climate change on urban flood risks: benefits of climate mitigation and adaptations

Quantifying the Uncertainty Related to Climate Change in the Assessment of Urban Flooding—A Case Study

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