Flood risk assessment of the Narmada Basin, India, under climate change scenarios

Abstract

Climate change has led to a significant rise in the occurrence of extreme events such as floods and droughts. It is essential to accurately assess the hazards linked to climate change to effectively tackle flood risks in the future. This study investigates the risk of flooding in the Narmada Basin under climate change scenarios. Future precipitation data of global climate models are used to create intensity–duration–frequency curves and peak flows are estimated using a hydrological model. These peak flows serve as inputs for the hydraulic model to simulate floods across various return periods. The fuzzy inference system (FIS) is employed to optimize releases and reduce peak flows to mitigate flood impacts. The findings indicate that the extent of flooding and maximum water depths increase with higher return periods and future scenarios, and optimizing the reservoir releases, decreases the extent of flooding. This decrease in inundation area ranges from approximately 9 to 10% in the Bargi-to-Indira Sagar section to 20–23% in the Indira Sagar-to-Omkareshwar Sagar segment. In the Omkareshwar Sagar-to-Sardar Sarovar segment, the flooded area diminishes by 17–18% under the Radioactive Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and by 12–14% under the RCP 8.5 scenarios.