Flood Risk in Polder Systems in Jakarta: Present and Future Analyses

Budiyono, Yus; Marfai, Muhammad Aris; Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H.; Moel, Hans de; Ward, Philip

doi:10.1007/978-3-319-54466-3_21

Cited by 8 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 23 publications

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“…If land use will change according to the government plans, it will have the potential of reducing risk by some 12%. Finally, Budiyono et al (2017) calculated the risk-reducing potential of a planned upgrade of the polder 2016system via construction and rehabilitation of dikes. This is done by cutting the risk curve, also known as the exceedance probability-damage curve, assuming that each polder will provide a standard of protection expressed as the return period of the event it can withstand (e.g., a 50-year flood).…”

Section: Climate Risk Assessment-case Studies Jakarta and Ho Chi Minhmentioning

confidence: 99%

Integrated Disaster Risk Management and Adaptation

Botzen

Bouwer

Scussolini

et al. 2018

Loss and Damage From Climate Change

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This chapter discusses integrated approaches to the management of risks related to extreme weather and climate change. This is done with the Loss and Damage (L&D) mechanism of the UNFCCC in mind. Relevant insights are provided for climate policy negotiators and policymakers on how risk management and adaptation interact with L&D solutions, and vice versa, on how L&D-related activities can support risk reduction and adaptation in vulnerable countries. Particular attention is devoted to how risk management can help society confront the impacts of weather disasters in relation to anthropogenic climate change. A holistic view of risk management is presented by discussing: the state-of-the art of risk assessment methods; (cost-benefit) evaluations of risk management options; household-scale risk reduction strategies; insurance schemes for residual risk and their relations with risk reduction; and the design of adaptation pathways to cope with uncertain timing and intensity of climate change impacts. Each topic is illustrated with concrete case studies. Finally, conclusions are drawn on the links between disaster risk management, climate adaptation and the L&D mechanism.

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Section: Climate Risk Assessment-case Studies Jakarta and Ho Chi Minhmentioning

confidence: 99%

Integrated Disaster Risk Management and Adaptation

Botzen

Bouwer

Scussolini

et al. 2018

Loss and Damage From Climate Change

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“…Regarding responses to increasing threat, the need to improve adaptation planning has long been recognized (Füssel, ). Yet actual assessment of the effectiveness of specific adaptation measures (e.g., Budiyono et al, ; de Bruin et al, ) and of their costs and benefits (Aerts et al, ) are not yet frequent in the literature. From the perspective of decision‐making in adaptation, the scope of analysis has been expanded to include consideration of the “deep” uncertainty inherent in climate projections, such as through the application of adaptation pathways (Barnett et al, ; Ranger et al, ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Adaptation to Sea Level Rise: A Multidisciplinary Analysis for Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam

Scussolini

Tran

Koks

et al. 2017

Water Resources Research

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One of the most critical impacts of sea level rise is that flooding suffered by ever larger settlements in tropical deltas will increase. Here we look at Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, and quantify the threats that coastal floods pose to safety and to the economy. For this, we produce flood maps through hydrodynamic modeling and, by combining these with data sets of exposure and vulnerability, we estimate two indicators of risk: the damage to assets and the number of potential casualties. We simulate current and future (2050 and 2100) flood risk using IPCC scenarios of sea level rise and socioeconomic change. We find that annual damage may grow by more than 1 order of magnitude, and potential casualties may grow 5–20‐fold until the end of the century, in the absence of adaptation. Impacts depend strongly on the climate and socioeconomic scenarios considered. Next, we simulate the implementation of adaptation measures and calculate their effectiveness in reducing impacts. We find that a ring dike would protect the inner city but increase risk in more rural districts, whereas elevating areas at risk and dryproofing buildings will reduce impacts to the city as a whole. Most measures perform well from an economic standpoint. Combinations of measures seem to be the optimal solution and may address potential equity conflicts. Based on our results, we design possible adaptation pathways for Ho Chi Minh City for the coming decades; these can inform policy‐making and strategic thinking.

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“…Polders are low-lying areas of land adjacent to coasts or large rivers that are enclosed by embankments constructed to protect the river and coastal floodplains in deltas across the globe, e.g., Bangladesh [1], Indonesia [2], Netherlands [3], and China [4]. Polders lie below the levels of the sea or adjacent outer rivers, and, therefore, pumping systems must be used during storm events to remove water from the inner rivers (artificial rivers inside the polder area) to the outer rivers to enable water to drain from the polder areas into the inner rivers [5].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluating the Benefits of Flood Warnings in the Management of an Urban Flood-Prone Polder Area

Duque,

O’Donnell,

Liu

et al. 2023

Hydrology

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Polders are low-lying areas located in deltas, surrounded by embankments to prevent flooding (river or tidal floods). They rely on pumping systems to remove water from the inner rivers (artificial rivers inside the polder area) to the outer rivers, especially during storms. Urbanized polders are especially vulnerable to pluvial flooding if the drainage, storage, and pumping capacity of the polder is inadequate. In this paper, a Monte Carlo (MC) framework is proposed to evaluate the benefits of rainfall threshold-based flood warnings when mitigating pluvial flooding in an urban flood-prone polder area based on 24 h forecasts. The framework computes metrics that give the potential waterlogging duration, maximum inundated area, and pump operation costs by considering the full range of potential storms. The benefits of flood warnings are evaluated by comparing the values of these metrics across different scenarios: the no-warning, perfect, deterministic, and probabilistic forecast scenarios. Probabilistic forecasts are represented using the concept of “predictive uncertainty” (PU). A polder area located in Nanjing was chosen for the case study. The results show a trade-off between the metrics that represent the waterlogging and the pumping costs, and that probabilistic forecasts of rainfall can considerably enhance these metrics. The results can be used to design a rainfall threshold-based flood early warning system (FEWS) for a polder area and/or evaluate its benefits.

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Flood Risk in Polder Systems in Jakarta: Present and Future Analyses

Cited by 8 publications

References 23 publications

Integrated Disaster Risk Management and Adaptation

Integrated Disaster Risk Management and Adaptation

Adaptation to Sea Level Rise: A Multidisciplinary Analysis for Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam

Evaluating the Benefits of Flood Warnings in the Management of an Urban Flood-Prone Polder Area

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