Flooding in Afghanistan: A Crisis

Hagen, Emlyn; Teufert, John F.

doi:10.1007/978-90-481-2344-5_19

Cited by 15 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 2 publications

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“…Exposure to floods will also increase because of rapid urbanization [ 6 ]. The effect of floods is particularly strong in Afghanistan, where they accounted for over 5,000 recorded deaths and about 400,000 displaced people between 1988 and 2006, over 200,000 of these in the 2002–2006 period alone [ 7 ]. In 2013, the data year for this study, floods accounted for 70% of all the natural disasters in Afghanistan [ 8 ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The effect of floods on anemia among reproductive age women in Afghanistan

2018

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This study uses biomarker information from the 2013 National Nutrition Survey Afghanistan and satellite precipitation driven modeling results from the Global Flood Monitoring System to analyze how floods affect the probability of anemia in Afghan women of reproductive age (15–49). In addition to establishing a causal relation between the two by exploiting the quasi-random variation of floods in different districts and periods, the analysis demonstrates that floods have a significant positive effect on the probability of anemia through two possible transmission mechanisms. The first is a significant effect on inflammation, probably related to water borne diseases carried by unsafe drinking water, and the second is a significant negative effect on retinol concentrations. Because the effect of floods on anemia remains significant even after we control for anemia’s most common causes, we argue that the condition may also be affected by elevated levels of psychological stress.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The effect of floods on anemia among reproductive age women in Afghanistan

2018

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“…Other relevant studies exist on the general influence of climate change and human impact on water resources in the Amu Darya basin, including the Aral Sea as part of this basin [22][23][24]. Other studies focus on hazards, mainly floods [25,26] and landslides [27], but without a climate change perspective. Beside these studies, some grey literature on climate change effects in Afghanistan exists that is mostly not based on systematic scientific approaches since the reports in the development context have different scopes (e.g., [4,[28][29][30]).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate Change in Afghanistan Deduced from Reanalysis and Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX)—South Asia Simulations

Aich

Akhundzadah

Knuerr³

et al. 2017

Climate

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Past and the projected future climate change in Afghanistan has been analyzed systematically and differentiated with respect to its different climate regions to gain some first quantitative insights into Afghanistan’s vulnerability to ongoing and future climate changes. For this purpose, temperature, precipitation and five additional climate indices for extremes and agriculture assessments (heavy precipitation; spring precipitation; growing season length (GSL), the Heat Wave Magnitude Index (HWMI); and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI)) from the reanalysis data were examined for their consistency to identify changes in the past (data since 1950). For future changes (up to the year 2100), the same parameters were extracted from an ensemble of 12 downscaled regional climate models (RCM) of the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX)-South Asia simulations for low and high emission scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5). In the past, the climatic changes were mainly characterized by a mean temperature increase above global level of 1.8 °C from 1950 to 2010; uncertainty with regard to reanalyzed rainfall data limited a thorough analysis of past changes. Climate models projected the temperature trend to accelerate in the future, depending strongly on the global carbon emissions (2006–2050 Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5/8.5: 1.7/2.3 °C; 2006–2099: 2.7/6.4 °C, respectively). Despite the high uncertainty with regard to precipitation projections, it became apparent that the increasing evapotranspiration is likely to exacerbate Afghanistan’s already existing water stress, including a very strong increase of frequency and magnitude of heat waves. Overall, the results show that in addition to the already extensive deficiency in adaptation to current climate conditions, the situation will be aggravated in the future, particularly in regard to water management and agriculture. Thus, the results of this study underline the importance of adequate adaptation to climate change in Afghanistan. This is even truer taking into account that GSL is projected to increase substantially by around 20 days on average until 2050, which might open the opportunity for extended agricultural husbandry or even additional harvests when water resources are properly managed.

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“…Long-term spatio-temporal data with good positional accuracy required for carrying out hydrodynamic modelling is not available in least developed countries and also for some developing countries (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change 2007). Even the basic flood hazard maps are not available for many developing countries (Rabindra et al 2008) which can provide basic support and help response and rescue agencies to coordinate their efforts in response to flooding events (Hagen & Teufert 2009). Most of the hydrological and hydraulic models used for identification of flood-risk areas are based on the complex algorithms and multiple data requirements like detailed fluvial section data and topographic surveys that are difficult to collect (Hagen et al 2010).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Development of flood inundation extent libraries over a range of potential flood levels: a practical framework for quick flood response

Bhatt

Rao

Diwakar

et al. 2016

Geomatics, Natural Hazards and Risk

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The aim of the present study is motivated to build an inundation library for a range of gauge heights, which can be used by decision-makers to anticipate the likely extent of inundation and provide quick response towards warning the habitation at threat. In the present study, two approaches for developing a series of static flood-inundation extent libraries for a range of potential flood levels using historical satellite images, gauge heights and digital elevation model (DEM) are demonstrated. First method is based on the geotagging of gauge height data with corresponding satellite observed inundation extent and the other method supplements the first method in the absence of adequate satellite data-sets by simulating inundation using gauge data and DEM for a range of gauge heights. Simulated inundation extents are validated with the satellite-derived reference inundation extents using spatial statistics, which measure the correspondence between the estimated and observed occurrence of events like probability of detection (POD), false-alarm ratio, and critical success index (CSI). A good correlation between the simulated inundation and satellite-derived inundation extents, with POD varying between 87% and 94%, CSI between 75% and 80% is observed.

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Flooding in Afghanistan: A Crisis

Cited by 15 publications

References 2 publications

The effect of floods on anemia among reproductive age women in Afghanistan

The effect of floods on anemia among reproductive age women in Afghanistan

Climate Change in Afghanistan Deduced from Reanalysis and Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX)—South Asia Simulations

Development of flood inundation extent libraries over a range of potential flood levels: a practical framework for quick flood response

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