Flooding in Cornwall 17 November 2010 in association with Segmented Line Convection

Weather, Vol. 79, no. 5, May 2024, pp. 146‐172

“…However, there was usually much more realistic representation of mesoscale precipitation areas within broader scale frontal zones, notably features such as line convection. For example, Sibley (2011) shows a case in which the likelihood of 'segmented line convection' was identified well advance by the UKV model, with the attendant risk of locally intense rainfall and squally winds (Figure 1). Before the advent of high-resolution models, features such as line convection could only be inferred in advance using forecasts from broader scale models (e.g.…”

The history of UK weather forecasting: the changing role of the central guidance forecaster. Part 8. Operational forecasting in the twenty‐first century: enhanced capabilities from nowcasting to extended range

“…However, there was usually much more realistic representation of mesoscale precipitation areas within broader scale frontal zones, notably features such as line convection. For example, Sibley (2011) shows a case in which the likelihood of ‘segmented line convection’ was identified well advance by the UKV model, with the attendant risk of locally intense rainfall and squally winds (Figure 1). Before the advent of high‐resolution models, features such as line convection could only be inferred in advance using forecasts from broader scale models (e.g.…”

“…The idea and timing of segmented frontal line convection was well predicted although there were errors in the exact positioning and intensity of the elements. Reproduced from Sibley (2011).…”