Floodplains and Complex Adaptive Systems—Perspectives on Connecting the Dots in Flood Risk Assessment with Coupled Component Models

Abstract

Floodplains, as seen from the flood risk management perspective, are composed of co-evolving natural and human systems. Both flood processes (that is, the hazard) and the values at risk (that is, settlements and infrastructure built in hazardous areas) are dynamically changing over time and influence each other. These changes influence future risk pathways. The co-evolution of all of these drivers for changes in flood risk could lead to emergent behavior. Hence, complexity theory and systems science can provide a sound theoretical framework for flood risk management in the 21st century. This review aims at providing an entry point for modelers in flood risk research to consider floodplains as complex adaptive systems. For the systems science community, the actual problems and approaches in the flood risk research community are summarized. Finally, an outlook is given on potential future coupled component modeling approaches that aims at bringing together both disciplines.

Modelling Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Large Wood Recruitment, Transport, and Deposition at the River Reach Scale during Extreme Floods

“…The reconstruction of the flood event in August 2005 resulted in a LW volume of 1774 m 3 at the lower boundary condition in Bern. This is remarkably higher than the observed volume of 600-900 m 3 . However, the latter takes into account clogged wood only.…”

“…Floods are triggered by precipitation events of high intensity or long duration. However, the local flood magnitude also depends on catchment characteristics, land use, river morphology, and the status of flood defense measures [2][3][4]. Especially in mountainous areas, the impacts of floods can be accentuated by sediment transport or large wood (LW) transport.…”

Simulating a Watershed-Scale Strategy to Mitigate Drought, Flooding, and Sediment Transport in Drylands

“…Specific hydrologic processes modeled in system dynamics, including runoff, sediment transport, aquifer recharge, and aquifer storage and recovery, were shown to produce comparable results to other commonly used hydrologic models [42,93,94]). A critical link is to integrate with other modeling approaches, such as suites of models that include spatial modeling as this framework employs to facilitate the development of alternative watershed management strategies [94][95][96][97]. Integrating and linking spatially explicit and process-based models with integrative system dynamics frameworks was identified as critical to characterizing reference states and facilitate management planning [98].…”

“…Integrating and linking spatially explicit and process-based models with integrative system dynamics frameworks was identified as critical to characterizing reference states and facilitate management planning [98]. Flooding risks motivated modeling approaches that explicitly address floodplain management as addressed in this work, although none to date included upland intermittent floodplain system interventions [95,99]. As Zischg [95] stated, floodplains are complex adaptive systems that are composed of co-evolving natural and human systems whose internal dynamics spawn emergent behavior that influences future risk pathways.…”

“…Flooding risks motivated modeling approaches that explicitly address floodplain management as addressed in this work, although none to date included upland intermittent floodplain system interventions [95,99]. As Zischg [95] stated, floodplains are complex adaptive systems that are composed of co-evolving natural and human systems whose internal dynamics spawn emergent behavior that influences future risk pathways. These behaviors and management strategies include trade-offs between upstream and downstream users and the collective shouldering of risk.…”