Fluctuation of Public Interest in COVID-19 in the United States: Retrospective Analysis of Google Trends Search Data

Abstract

Background In the absence of vaccines and established treatments, nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) are fundamental tools to control coronavirus disease (COVID-19) transmission. NPIs require public interest to be successful. In the United States, there is a lack of published research on the factors that influence public interest in COVID-19. Using Google Trends, we examined the US level of public interest in COVID-19 and how it correlated to testing and with other countries. Objective The aim of this study was to determine how public interest in COVID-19 in the United States changed over time and the key factors that drove this change, such as testing. US public interest in COVID-19 was compared to that in countries that have been more successful in their containment and mitigation strategies. Methods In this retrospective study, Google Trends was used to analyze the volume of internet searches within the United States relating to COVID-19, focusing on dates between December 31, 2019, and March 24, 2020. The volume of internet searches related to COVID-19 was compared to that in other countries. Results Throughout January and February 2020, there was limited search interest in COVID-19 within the United States. Interest declined for the first 21 days of February. A similar decline was seen in geographical regions that were later found to be experiencing undetected community transmission in February. Between March 9 and March 12, 2020, there was a rapid rise in search interest. This rise in search interest was positively correlated with the rise of positive tests for SARS-CoV-2 (6.3, 95% CI −2.9 to 9.7; P<.001). Within the United States, it took 52 days for search interest to rise substantially after the first positive case; in countries with more successful outbreak control, search interest rose in less than 15 days. Conclusions Containment and mitigation strategies require public interest to be successful. The initial level of COVID-19 public interest in the United States was limited and even decreased during a time when containment and mitigation strategies were being established. A lack of public interest in COVID-19 existed in the United States when containment and mitigation policies were in place. Based on our analysis, it is clear that US policy makers need to develop novel methods of communicating COVID-19 public health initiatives.

Public interest in rheumatic diseases and rheumatologist in the United States during the COVID-19 pandemic: evidence from Google Trends

“…Moreover, the study evaluated the public interest only in initial and short term; therefore, a study examining the long-term interest during the pandemic is warranted in the future. In addition, the trends in COVID-19 terms, which would allow a better interpretation of the present results, could not be included to avoid overlapping publication with previous studies examining the trends of public interest in these terms [ 38 , 39 ]. Another limitation of this study is that it does not provide information regarding the reasons for the observed trends.…”

Association of Public Interest in Preventive Measures and Increased COVID-19 Cases After the Expiration of Stay-at-Home Orders: A Cross-Sectional Study

“…For example, the United States took 52 days from the first confirmed case to substantially increase COVID-19 public interest compared with 15 days in countries with more successful outbreak forecasts. 11 Although self-reported preventive measures, such as mask wearing, continue to be as high as 74% within the United States, 12 poor interest in preventive measures in certain states may result in decreasing adherence to public health recommendations. Thus, our study highlights the need for a unified national response and public policy measures to increase public interest in COVID-19 preventive measures.…”

Need of care in interpreting Google Trends-based COVID-19 infodemiological study results: potential risk of false-positivity

“…Our study has some limitations. For example, in the VAR model, the effect of each variable is assumed to be fixed throughout the reviewed period, which may not always be true because the public interest and attitude toward COVID-19 could vary over time [21]. This can be suspected by the decreased peak of GT trend for the “COVID” keyword in the second wave (Fig 2, in Australia, Japan, and the United States).…”