We derive new bounds for moments of the error in the Sato-Tate law over families of elliptic curves. Our estimates are stronger than those obtained in [4] and [5] for the first and second moment, but this comes at the cost of larger ranges of averaging. As applications, we deduce new almost-all results for the said errors and a conditional Central Limit Theorem on the distribution of these errors. Our method is different from those used in the above-mentioned papers and builds on recent work by the second-named author and K. Sinha [22] who derived a Central Limit Theorem on the distribution of the errors in the Sato-Tate law for families of cusp forms for the full modular group. In addition, identities by Birch and Melzak play a crucial rule in this paper. Birch's identities connect moments of coefficients of Hasse-Weil L-functions for elliptic curves with the Kronecker class number and further with traces of Hecke operators. Melzak's identity is combinatorial in nature.2010 Mathematics Subject Classification. 11G05 (primary); 11G40 (secondary).
1Here the size of δ depends on ε and is smaller than 1/12 (see equation (20) in [5]).There are a number of related results in the literature (see, in particular, [9] and [21]). In this paper, we treat all moments, not only the first and second moments, and obtain new estimates. Our focus lies on strong savings over the trivial bounds rather than as small as possible families of curves (as weak as possible conditions on A and B), which latter was the goal in the papers [4] and [5] as well as subsequent papers on this subject. Our savings for the first and second moments are indeed stronger than those obtained in [4] and [5]. In particular, for the first moment, we get, for fixed I, a saving of x 1/4 (log x) c unconditionally and x 1/2−ε under MRH (a particular case of the Generalized Riemann Hypothesis, stated below) as compared to the power of logarithm saving in Theorem 1.2(i) and the above-mentioned saving of x δ with δ < 1/12 obtained in [5]. The price of this improvement will be that our families of curves are larger, i.e., our conditions on A and B