‘Fly to a Safer North’: Distributional Shifts of the Orchid Ophrys insectifera L. Due to Climate Change

Abstract

Numerous orchid species around the world have already been affected by the ongoing climate change, displaying phenological alterations and considerable changes to their distributions. The fly orchid (Ophrys insectifera L.) is a well-known and distinctive Ophrys species in Europe, with a broad distribution across the continent. This study explores the effects of climate change on the range of O. insectifera, using a species distribution models (SDMs) framework that encompasses different climatic models and scenarios for the near- and long-term future. The species’ environmentally suitable area is projected to shift northwards (as expected) but downhill (contrary to usual expectations) in the future. In addition, an overall range contraction is predicted under all investigated combinations of climatic models and scenarios. While this is moderate overall, it includes some regions of severe loss and other areas with major gains. Specifically, O. insectifera is projected to experience major area loss in its southern reaches (the Balkans, Italy and Spain), while it will expand its northern limits to North Europe, with the UK, Scandinavia, and the Baltic countries exhibiting the largest gains.

Loss of fungal symbionts and changes in pollinator availability caused by climate change will affect the distribution and survival chances of myco-heterotrophic orchid species

“…While obviously species with broader environmental tolerance have higher survival chances than more specialized taxa, the fragility of ecological interactions can further affect persistence of widely distributed organisms. Studies on future distribution of European orchids are rather scarce and while some taxa ( Nigritella nigra 91 , Pseudorchis albida 92 ) are predicted to lose their suitable niches across their ranges, others are expected to experience a poleward range shift (some Orchis 93 , Ophrys insectifera 94 , some Epipactis 90 ). Noteworthy, none of the previous research considered the importance of mycorrhizal fungi on Orchidaceae distribution and most of the published analyses ignored also the future availability of orchid pollen vectors.…”

Assessing the Vulnerability of Medicinal and Aromatic Plants to Climate and Land-Use Changes in a Mediterranean Biodiversity Hotspot

“…More specifically, areas currently designated as biodiversity hotspots within the Chelmos-Vouraikos National Park might face a staggering loss, with predictions of up to 86.4% of their area vanishing (Table S6; Figures 5, S6 and S7). This drastic shrinkage threatens the safe havens of plant genetic resources, necessitating immediate and strategic intervention [43,46,[208][209][210][211].…”

An ensemble model predicts an upward range shift of the endemic and endangered Yellow‐throated Apalis (Apalis flavigularis) under future climate change in Malawi

“…Species distribution models (SDMs) also known as ecological niche models (ENMs), have proven to be important tools for assessing the impacts of climate change on species distributions (Ahmad et al., 2020 ; Charitonidou et al., 2022 ; Kufa et al., 2022 ). These models predict current and future suitable areas for a given species, aiding in the identification of sites for habitat restoration, and conservation prioritization (Butt et al., 2020 ; Westwood et al., 2020 ).…”