Flying into the Future: Aviation Emissions Scenarios to 2050

Owen, Bethan; Lee, David S.; Lim, Ling L.

doi:10.1021/es902530z

Cited by 188 publications

(128 citation statements)

References 15 publications

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“…Wilkerson et al, 2010). Air traffic growth is projected in all three regions, particularly in the tropics; for example, Owen et al (2010) predict 5 times as much air traffic in some regions in 2050 compared to 2000 for the A2 scenario (their Fig. 2) used in the 2007 IPCC assessment (Riahi et al, 2007), on which the RCP8.5 scenario is based.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Ice supersaturation and the potential for contrail formation in a changing climate

Irvine

Shine

2015

Earth Syst. Dynam.

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Abstract. Ice supersaturation (ISS) in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere is important for the formation of cirrus clouds and long-lived contrails. Cold ISS (CISS) regions (taken here to be ice-supersaturated regions with temperature below 233 K) are most relevant for contrail formation. We analyse projected changes to the 250 hPa distribution and frequency of CISS regions over the 21st century using data from the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 simulations for a selection of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models. The models show a global-mean, annual-mean decrease in CISS frequency by about one-third, from 11 to 7 % by the end of the 21st century, relative to the present-day period 1979-2005. Changes are analysed in further detail for three subregions where air traffic is already high and increasing (Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes) or expected to increase (tropics and Northern Hemisphere polar regions). The largest change is seen in the tropics, where a reduction of around 9 percentage points in CISS frequency by the end of the century is driven by the strong warming of the upper troposphere. In the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes the multi-model-mean change is an increase in CISS frequency of 1 percentage point; however the sign of the change is dependent not only on the model but also on latitude and season. In the Northern Hemisphere polar regions there is an increase in CISS frequency of 5 percentage points in the annual mean. These results suggest that, over the 21st century, climate change may have large impacts on the potential for contrail formation; actual changes to contrail cover will also depend on changes to the volume of air traffic, aircraft technology and flight routing.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Ice supersaturation and the potential for contrail formation in a changing climate

Irvine

Shine

2015

Earth Syst. Dynam.

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“…Through gross domestic product (GDP) growth rates and assumptions around technology and operational change, they determine future levels of emissions (Eyring, Kohler, Lauer, & Lemper, 2005;Lee et al, 2009;Owen & Lee, 2010). Others focus more on CO 2 cost abatement potential relative to a business-as-usual scenario (Eide, Longva, Hoffmann, Oyvind, & Dalsoen, 2011;McCollum, Gould, & Greene, 2009), while some go beyond using SRES to estimate levels of future CO 2 by taking into account industry-specific demand assumptions (Macintosh & Wallace, 2009).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

All adrift: aviation, shipping, and climate change policy

Bows‐Larkin

2014

Climate Policy

137

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All sectors face decarbonization for a 2 8C temperature increase to be avoided. Nevertheless, meaningful policy measures that address rising CO 2 from international aviation and shipping remain woefully inadequate. Treated with a similar approach within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), they are often debated as if facing comparable challenges, and even influence each others' mitigation policies. Yet their strengths and weaknesses have important distinctions. This article sheds light on these differences so that they can be built upon to improve the quality of debate and ensuing policy development. The article quantifies '2 8C' pathways for these sectors, highlighting the need for mitigation measures to be urgently accelerated. It reviews recent developments, drawing attention to one example where a change in aviation mitigation policy had a direct impact on measures to cut CO 2 from shipping. Finally, the article contrasts opportunities and barriers towards mitigation. The article concludes that there is a portfolio of opportunities for short-to medium-term decarbonization for shipping, but its complexity is its greatest barrier to change. In contrast, the more simply structured aviation sector is pinning too much hope on emissions trading to deliver CO 2 cuts in line with 2 8C. Instead, the solution remains controversial and unpopular -avoiding 2 8C requires demand management. Policy relevanceThe governance arrangements around the CO 2 produced by international aviation and shipping are different from other sectors because their emissions are released in international airspace and waters. Instead, through the Kyoto Protocol, the International Civil Aviation Authority (ICAO) and the International Maritime Organization (IMO) were charged with developing policies towards mitigating their emissions. Slow progress to date, coupled with strong connections with rapidly growing economies, has led to the CO 2 from international transport growing at a higher rate than the average rate from all other sectors. This article considers this rapid growth, and the potential for future CO 2 growth in the context of avoiding a 2 8C temperature rise above pre-industrial levels. It explores similarities and differences between these two sectors, highlighting that a reliance on global market-based measures to deliver required CO 2 cuts will likely leave both at odds with the overarching climate goal.

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“…Given that the rate of growth in tourism is increasing at a significantly higher rate than efficiency gains (WEF, 2009), the absolute contribution of tourism to climate change is increasing and, without substantial change, will continue to grow in the foreseeable future (Dubois et al, 2011;Gössling, 2013;Gössling, Hall, Peeters & Scott, 2010;Gössling, Scott & Hall, 2013;Owens et al, 2010;Peeters & Dubois, 2010;Peeters & Landré, 2012). There are limits to efficiency gains.…”

Section: Tourism and Climate Change: Research And Responsementioning

confidence: 99%

No time for smokescreen skepticism: A rejoinder to Shani and Arad

et al. 2015

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HighlightsRejoinder to claims of Shani and Arad (2014) Extent of scientific consensus on climate change indicated Evidence for climate change is observational and predictive Extent of tourism related emissions indicated Concern of climate denial for scientific debate and communication Shani and Arad (2014) claimed that tourism scholars tend to endorse the most pessimistic assessments regarding climate change, and that anthropogenic climate change was a fashionable and highly controversial scientific topic . This brief rejoinder provides the balance that is missing from such climate change denial and skepticism studies on climate change and tourism. Recent research provides substantial evidence that reports on anthropogenic climate change are accurate, and that humaninduced greenhouse gas emissions, including from the tourism industry, play a significant role in climate change. Some positive net effects may be experienced by some destinations in the short-term, but in the long-term all elements of the tourism system will be impacted. The expansion of tourism emissions at a rate greater than efficiency gains means that it is increasingly urgent that the tourism sector acknowledge, accept and respond to climate change. Debate on tourism-related adaptation and mitigation measures is to be encouraged and welcomed. Climate change denial is not. . ABSTRACT

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Flying into the Future: Aviation Emissions Scenarios to 2050

Cited by 188 publications

References 15 publications

Ice supersaturation and the potential for contrail formation in a changing climate

Ice supersaturation and the potential for contrail formation in a changing climate

All adrift: aviation, shipping, and climate change policy

No time for smokescreen skepticism: A rejoinder to Shani and Arad

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