Fog Season Risk Assessment for Maritime Transportation Systems Exploiting Himawari-8 Data: A Case Study in Bohai Sea, China

Abstract

Sea fog is a disastrous marine phenomenon for ship navigation. Sea fog reduces visibility at sea and has a great impact on the safety of ship navigation, which may lead to catastrophic accidents. Geostationary orbit satellites such as Himawari-8 make it possible to monitor sea fog over large areas of the sea. In this paper, a framework for marine navigation risk evaluation in fog seasons is developed based on Himawari-8 satellite data, which includes: (1) a sea fog identification method for Himawari-8 satellite data based on multilayer perceptron; (2) a navigation risk evaluation model based on the CRITIC objective weighting method, which, along with the sea fog identification method, allows us to obtain historical sea fog data and marine environmental data, such as properties related to wind, waves, ocean currents, and water depth to evaluate navigation risks; and (3) a way to determine shipping routes based on the Delaunay triangulation method to carry out risk analyses of specific navigation areas. This paper uses global information system mapping technology to get navigation risk maps in different seasons in Bohai Sea and its surrounding waters. The proposed sea fog identification method is verified by CALIPSO vertical feature mask data, and the navigation risk evaluation model is verified by historical accident data. The probability of detection is 81.48% for sea fog identification, and the accident matching rate of the navigation risk evaluation model is 80% in fog seasons.