Breast cancer prognosis has improved greatly in recent years. Consequently, a thorough search for sensitive prognostic factors, able to help clinicians offer appropriate therapy, has become a priority in this area. In this study, we considered all new cases of invasive breast cancer diagnosed in the Province of Modena, Italy, between 1997 and, registered by the Modena Cancer Registry. The principal endpoint of this study was relapse-free survival (RFS). A set of 11 clinic and pathological parameters was investigated. After a median follow-up of 73 months, 494 relapses were recorded. Tumor size, node status, grading, HER2 and estrogen receptor status were retained as independent factors in a multivariate analysis. Using these variables, a prognostic model was devised to identify three groups at different risk. In the training sample, the 5-year RFS rates resulted 96.0%, 82.9% and 63.7% in patients at low, intermediate and high risk, respectively (p < 0.0001). In the validation sample, the 5-year RFS was 96.2%, 85.4% and 66.9%, respectively. To conclude our study demonstrates that a very simple prognostic index based on easily available clinical data may represent a useful tool for the identification of patients at different risk of relapse and may be a notable device to predict who truly benefits from medical treatment.The adoption of wide-scale mammographic screening for the detection of breast cancer at an earlier phase of development has resulted in an increasing number of cases being diagnosed at a very early stage, together with a reduction in breast cancer morbidity and mortality.1-3 However, the risk that screendetected cancer can lead to overdiagnosis in up to 24% of the cases, has been recently suggested. 4,5 Moreover, the introduction of the sentinel node procedure 6-8 has led to an increase in the detection rate of small lymph node metastases, due to more accurate pathological assessment that include step sectioning 9,10 and immunohistochemistry. 11 Finally, the new drugs and an enhanced tuning of already existing therapeutic approaches have contributed to a better disease control.Consequently, a thorough search for more sensitive prognostic factors, able to help clinicians offer appropriate adjuvant therapy after surgery, balancing the benefits of the prevention of recurrence and the risks related with unnecessary treatment, has become a priority in this area.In the past, the recognition of prognostic factors was based on the retrospective analysis of archive data and results were limited by patient selection criteria, missing data, no inclusion of more recently reported parameters and outdated adjuvant therapies. Finally, although overall survival (OS) should be the optimal endpoint, in a disease with an increasing scarcity of events, it appears unrealistic and requires a very long follow-up period.For all these reasons, we collected an exhaustive set of clinical, laboratory, pathological and therapeutic information for all cases of breast cancer diagnosed in the Province of Modena, Northern Italy, w...