Food and water gaps to 2050: preliminary results from the global food and water system (GFWS) platform

Abstract

We review the pressures, threats and risks to national food and water availability based on projected global population growth to 2050 using the Global Food and Water System (GFWS) platform. This platform is used to explore food availability deficits for scenarios of crop production under various fertiliser, water use, crop improvement and land use options. The GFWS platform can be used to assess the effects of annual crop productivity improvements on food production and incorporates data from 19 major food-producing nations to generate projections of food and water gaps in irrigated agriculture. Preliminary results indicate that crop-based food supply is able to meet food requirements by 2050, but this is only possible with 'input intensification' that includes increased rates of water in irrigated agriculture and fertiliser use per hectare and continued annual growth of crop yield productivity improvement of at least 0.5 % per year over the period. Increased water withdrawals for agriculture with input intensification would, without any increases in withdrawals in the manufacturing, mining or household uses, place the world above the safe operating space in terms of overall water use by 2050. Even with input intensification, large and increasing crop-based food availability deficits to 2050 can be anticipated in some countries and regions within the group of 19 countries, especially in South Asia.

Responding to Global Challenges in Food, Energy, Environment and Water: Risks and Options Assessment for Decision‐Making

“…Sustainably feeding more than 9 billion people in 2050 is arguably the largest global challenge over the next 35 years (Grafton et al 2015b). Not only will food production need to increase by at least 50 per cent but also, on current trends, a similar upward trajectory is foreseen for essential inputs to the food system.…”

Achieving Water and Food Security in 2050: Outlook, Policies, and Investments

“…Successful efforts to supply sufficient food will include closing yield gaps in lower income countries, in part by increasing the use of better seeds and fertilizer, improving resource management, and enhancing the technology of crop production through advances in genomics and phenomics [9][10][11][12][13]. In addition, public officials must choose policies and investments that encourage increases in agricultural productivity on large and small farms, and in irrigated and rainfed settings [14][15][16].…”

“…Many analysts have suggested there will be sufficient water to produce the food needed in 2050 to support a global population of 9 to 10 billion, provided we allocate and manage water wisely, and we achieve notable gains in agricultural productivity [12,[26][27][28]. Wise allocation and use involves understanding the role of water in crop and livestock production, and also in municipal, commercial, and industrial uses, and in the provision of ecosystem services.…”

Possible pathways and tensions in the food and water nexus

“…Here, we examine the possible gaps between global food supply and food requirements, discuss the implications for water extractions and consumption in agriculture, and then, highlight the possible pathways to promote global food and water security. Our approach, described in Section 2, calculates food production out to 2050 for different scenarios for 19 major cereal producing and consuming countries using the Global Food and Water Systems (GFWS) Platform [ Grafton et al ., ] designed to explore the nexus between food supply and water demand . Using this platform, in Section 3, we evaluate possible food and water deficits using a crop yield increase (CYI) of 0.5% per annum that is represented as a worst case climate change scenario (namely a 20% reduction in CYI to 2050) compared to 17% indicated by Nelson et al .…”

“…Importantly, Lesk et al [2016] show, using global extreme weather data from 1964 to 2007, that during a drought national cereal production reduced by 10.1% on average (9.9-10.2%, 95% confidence interval) and extreme heat led to a production deficit of 9.1% (8.4-9.5%, 95% confidence interval).Here, we examine the possible gaps between global food supply and food requirements, discuss the implications for water extractions and consumption in agriculture, and then, highlight the possible pathways to promote global food and water security. Our approach, described in Section 2, calculates food production out to 2050 for different scenarios for 19 major cereal producing and consuming countries using the Global Food and Water Systems (GFWS) Platform [Grafton et al, 2015] designed to explore the nexus between food supply and water demand. 2 Using this platform, in Section 3, we evaluate possible food and water deficits using a crop yield increase (CYI) of 0.5% per annum that is represented as a worst case climate change scenario (namely a 20% reduction in CYI to 2050) compared to 17% indicated by Nelson et al [2014], and a CYI of 1% per annum (namely a 40% increase by 2050), which is similar to the current global yield growth [Fischer et al, 2014].…”