Food prices in a pandemic: Global data show higher costs for nutritious food groups

Bai, Yan; Costlow, Leah; Ebel, Alissa; Laves, Sarah; Ueda, Yurika; Volin, Natalie; Zamek, Maya; Masters, William A.

doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-710555/v1

Cited by 4 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 17 publications

(21 reference statements)

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“…The small but consistent increase in the cost of vegetables in both cities may however threaten even the low consumption that existed before COVID-19, where, as shown in our analyses, the per capita spending on this food group was 64% less than the cost of the minimum recommended diet in 2018. Nutritious foods are reported to be more highly-priced in lower-income countries than in higher-income countries thus limiting the ability of poor households in the former to meet the cost of vegetables and a healthy diet (54), and prices of nutritious foods have been seen to increase during COVID-19 (12,55) so prices for healthy foods should be monitored routinely, and their price during shocks such as pandemics safeguarded. Layoffs and reduced incomes driven by restrictions imposed to combat the virus in the short term are layered on existing food insecurity in many contexts, both in high-and low-income countries.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Using data from 63 lower-and middle-income countries representing 3.5 billion people, Laborde, Herforth (10) estimated that 2.5 billion people (70%) could not afford a healthy diet pre-COVID-19, and an extra 141 million people (+ 4%) could no longer afford it in 2020. Bai, Costlow (12) compared monthly retail prices for 180 countries from 2019 to 2021 and observed a signi cant increase in the price of micronutrient-rich food. While these global studies are important to understand the magnitude of the impact, there is also a need for country-speci c studies to understand the effects in a local context.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Effect of COVID-19 on the affordability of a healthy diet for urban populations in Thailand and the Philippines

Mwambi

Schreinemachers

Praneetvatakul

et al. 2022

Preprint

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BackgroundThe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has severely affected global food security, but analyses of the impact of the pandemic on the cost and affordability of a healthy diet are limited. This study examines the immediate effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the cost and affordability of a healthy diet among urban households in Bangkok, Thailand and Manila, the Philippines.MethodsWe use official food price and household income and food expenditure data from the national statistics offices. The cost of recommended diet (CoRD) method was used to assess the minimum cost of a healthy diet, following the healthy diet recommendations provided in the national food-based dietary guidelines of the specific countries. Regression discontinuity design was used to determine the COVID-19 effect on food prices and scenario analysis was used to determine the effect of reduced food budgets with and without government relief programs. ResultsThe results show that the average cost of the recommended diet was US$ 0.67 per person/day in Bangkok and US$ 1.44 in Manila immediately before the start of the pandemic. This diet is generally affordable for all households in Bangkok, but only for 40% of households (5.42 million people) in Manila, indicating much higher poverty in the latter. The pandemic and associated government measures, decreased the cost of the recommended diet with 3% in Bangkok (p=0.002) but not in Manila (p=0.298). Assuming contractions in people’s food budgets of 15-20%, the recommended diet would become unaffordable for 1.3-2.3 million people in Bangkok and 5.97 to 7.40 million people in Manila. In Bangkok, government relief largely compensated for this loss, but relief payments in Manila were not enough to compensate the effect. ConclusionThese results show that the main effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the affordability of healthy diets was through the effect on incomes of the poor rather than through prices. The government relief measures should be targeted to low-income beneficiaries to have adequate resources to purchase a healthy diet.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effect of COVID-19 on the affordability of a healthy diet for urban populations in Thailand and the Philippines

Mwambi

Schreinemachers

Praneetvatakul

et al. 2022

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

Review: Retail consumer price data reveal gaps and opportunities to monitor food systems for nutrition

et al. 2021

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Cost and affordability of a healthy diet for urban populations in Thailand and the Philippines before and during the COVID-19 pandemic

Mwambi¹,

Schreinemachers²,

Praneetvatakul

et al. 2023

BMC Public Health

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Background The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic severely affected global food security, but analyses of its impact on the cost and affordability of a healthy diet are limited. This study examines the immediate effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the cost and affordability of a healthy diet among urban households in Bangkok, Thailand and Manila, the Philippines. Methods We used official food price and household income and food expenditure data from the national statistics offices. The cost of recommended diet (CoRD) method was employed to assess the minimum cost of a healthy diet, following the healthy diet recommendations provided in the national food-based dietary guidelines of the specific countries. Regression discontinuity design was estimated to determine the COVID-19 effect on food prices and scenario analysis done to determine the effect of reduced food budgets with and without government relief programs. Results The results show that the average cost of the recommended diet was US$ 1.55 per person/day in Bangkok and US$ 3.76 in Manila (2019 prices in purchasing power parities) immediately before the pandemic. This diet is generally affordable for all households in Bangkok, but only for 37% of households (4.98 million people) in Manila, indicating much higher poverty in the latter. The pandemic and associated government measures decreased the cost of the recommended diet with 6.5% in Bangkok (p = 0.001) but not in Manila (p = 0.167). Assuming contractions in people’s food budgets of 15–20%, the recommended diet became unaffordable for 0.08–0.12 million people in Bangkok and 6.32–7.73 million people in Manila during the pandemic. Government relief largely compensated for this loss in Bangkok, but relief payments in Manila were not enough to compensate the effect. Conclusion These results show that the main effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the affordability of healthy diets was through the effect on reduced incomes of the poor rather than through prices. Government relief measures should target low-income households to give them the means to purchase healthy food items.

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Food prices in a pandemic: Global data show higher costs for nutritious food groups

Cited by 4 publications

References 17 publications

Effect of COVID-19 on the affordability of a healthy diet for urban populations in Thailand and the Philippines

Effect of COVID-19 on the affordability of a healthy diet for urban populations in Thailand and the Philippines

Review: Retail consumer price data reveal gaps and opportunities to monitor food systems for nutrition

Cost and affordability of a healthy diet for urban populations in Thailand and the Philippines before and during the COVID-19 pandemic

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