Food safety and nutrition – how to prepare for a challenging future? New approaches for using scenarios for policy-making

Abstract

Scenarios are a well-established methodology used in foresight. In this paper a three-phased process is described to maximise relevance for policy-making of a set of scenarios. As a first step, four scenarios were developed as a basis for the assessment of the ability of the EU's legislative and policy framework on food safety and nutrition to deal with possible future challenges. In the second step the scenarios were analysed by stakeholders to identify the scenario-specific challenge profiles in terms of food safety and nutrition. Policy and regulatory responses were formulated towards improving the fitness of the EU food framework for the future. The pertinence and realism of this exercise generated questions about how the role of the EU policy maker in this area could develop. To answer this question, in a third step, a new tailor-made approach was developed, allowing exploring and testing policy-making under diverse circumstances. The serious gaming platform, the Joint Research Centre's Scenario Exploration System, was adapted and applied with a number of selected stakeholders. Both approaches, each on their own, demonstrated the power of scenarios for simulating realistic policy circumstances. In combination, the process allowed to examine, in systemic way, different aspects of future policies and fostering a more forward-looking mind-set to inform practical policy-making.

Disparities in Nutritional Adequacy of Diets between Different Socioeconomic Groups of Finnish Adults

“…At this point, more insight is needed into the dietary differences between population groups that differ in their sociodemographic and socioeconomic status (SES) [ 13 , 14 , 15 ], in order to mitigate SES-based inequalities of health. This information is also increasingly important to predict the rate and the nutritional consequences of the transition towards more climate-friendly diets, i.e., the expected consumption increase in foods of vegetable origin and decrease in animal-based products [ 16 , 17 , 18 ]. Ensuring a socially just dietary transition requires attentiveness to existing SES-based inequalities in nutrition [ 15 ].…”

A Game for All Seasons: Lessons and Learnings from the JRC’s Scenario Exploration System

“…The first area has proven most beneficial in policy related contexts at the European Commission (Bock and Bontoux, 2017).…”

“…Forward-looking strategic and systemic reflection was the original intention behind the development of the Scenario Exploration System. This objective seems to be achieved quite well if one is to believe the response statistics of the SES feedback surveys and the experience in the European Commission (Bock & Bontoux, 2017). The dynamic interactions between scenario explorers, the influence and considerations brought by the public voice, the availability of limited resources and the external constraints brought by the scenarios force participants to engage in strategic and systemic thinking without realising.…”

“…It was applied with a set of DG SANTE’s actual stakeholders in a simulation mode in a one-day workshop format. This experience was part of a broader foresight exercise that is described in detail elsewhere (Bock and Bontoux 2017). The SES session was used to feed an internal strategic reflection exercise.…”

“…Sessions have also been held both in homogeneous (e.g., in Bologna, Cork, or Frankfurt) and heterogeneous (e.g., multinational European, EU-China, EU-emigration countries) cultural environments with equal success (Christophilopoulos et al 2019; Szczepanikova and Van Criekinge 2018). Experiences with participants from diverse professional backgrounds and types of education (often also multicultural) showed the ability of the SES to create constructive conversations to address complex issues between people who would not easily engage in a constructive conversation spontaneously, for example, industry–NGO (Bock and Bontoux 2017). Beyond evidence from participant surveys, success has been assessed largely on the basis of the decision from the original requesting projects to use the tool further after the end of the initial assignment, often in a different setting.…”