Forcasting Natural Gas Consumption in Nigeria using the Modified Grey Model (MGM(1,1,⊗b))

Abstract

Accurate prediction of the natural gas consumption in Nigeria is crucial to Gas management. This study utilizes the improved Grey model (MGM(1,1,⊗b)), which is an improvement of the modified Grey model (MGM(1,1)), to forecast the natural gas consumption of Nigeria for the year 2021 to 2025. A secondary data retrieved from the NNPC 2019 annual statistics bulletin was used to build a model for this prediction. Noting that MGM(1,1) model uses the Grey action quantity as a unique real number which do not reflect the uncertainty nature of Grey systems. A model (MGM(1,1,⊗b)) was developed such that it extends the MGM(1,1) model to retain the uncertainty nature of Grey systems. The new modified Grey model (MGM(1,1,⊗b)) was used to make prediction of the natural gas consumption of Nigeria and the results shows that the (MGM(1,1,⊗b)) model gives a prediction interval which the actual value is bracketed. This implies that natural gas consumption of Nigeria for 2021 to 2025 lies within the (MGM(1,1,⊗b)) model prediction values for the same year.

Forecasting China's natural gas external dependence under the “Dual Carbon” goals by a new grey model

“…Other scholars also established model DAGM(1,1) for more big sample data with adjacent accumulation to forecast the natural gas consumption of G20 countries. 22 Because of the uncertainty of statistical data, some scholars established model MGM(1,1,⊗ b ) 23 for prediction. Considering the seasonal and periodic oscillation of natural gas demand and consumption, scholars discussed and established multiple models for prediction.…”