Forced Migration and the Childbearing of Women and Men: A Disruption of the Tempo and Quantum of Fertility?

Abstract

It is well known that migrant fertility is associated with age at migration, but little is known about this relationship for forced migrants. We study an example of displacement in which the entire population of Finnish Karelia was forced to move elsewhere in Finland in the 1940s. This displacement was unique because of its size and scale, because we have data on almost the whole population of both men and women who moved, and because of the similarity between origin and destination. These aspects enable us to investigate the disruptive impact of forced migration, net of other factors such as adaptation and selection. For all ages at migration from one to 20, female forced migrants had lower levels of completed fertility than similar women born in present-day Finland, which suggests a permanent impact of migration. However, women born in the same year as the initial forced migration showed no difference, which may indicate the presence of a counterbalancing fertility-increasing effect, as observed elsewhere for people born during a humanitarian crisis. There is less evidence of an impact for men, which suggests a gendered impact of forced migration—and its timing—on fertility. Results are similar after controlling for social and spatial mobility, indicating that there may be no major trade-off between reproduction and these forms of mobility.

Understanding the Intergenerational Impact of Migration: An Adult Mortality Advantage for the Children of Forced Migrants?

“…We therefore recommend that future research tries to examine the role of these mechanisms in more detail. Here we note there is evidence from prior research that female forced migrants had fewer children 25 and that male forced migrants experienced an increase in income over the long run, 32 which suggests that these could be potential mechanisms that may explain our results.…”

“…In line with prior research, we assume that these are all the children of forced migrants, as justified by minimal levels of internal migration from ceded areas prior to 1940. 25 We compare these G2 children of forced migrants with the children of parents born in present-day Finland. In order to examine the intergenerational impact of forced migration, we vary the comparison group, which also serves as a means of controlling for bias due to observed and unobserved confounders.…”

“…Crucial to the design of this study, the circumstances surrounding forced migration from ceded Karelia means that individuals were not selected on observed or unobserved characteristics. 25 Furthermore, there were negligible differences between ceded Karelia and the rest of Finland in terms of culture, language, and society. Nevertheless, it is true that forced migrants from ceded Karelia could be considered more similar to the population of eastern Finland, particularly those people closest to the border shared with ceded Karelia.…”