Forces Driving Oil and Gas Demand Cycles

Abstract

TX 75083-3836, U.S.A., fax 01-972-952-9435. AbstractOil and gas prices have historically been very volatile taking the demand for oil through wild cycles and have taken the economy of the world through the cycles with them. Oil producers and consumers tried to dampen the cycles and establish a market with softer fluctuations; however, their efforts were largely unsuccessful. OPEC strategy for dealing with the possibility of declining oil prices in the future appears to be the same old one that failed to stem the price fluctuations of the past. OPEC appears to be setting themselves up for yet another failure and the old cliché "history repeats itself" seems to be in order.Indeed every steep price increase results in a steep decline and we appear to be due for one, will it actually happen? If the past is any indicator, nobody knows. This implies that the forces that drive the oil and gas demand are not all understood and certainly not easily predictable. Perhaps the cyclical nature of supply, demand and prices of energy is a lasting phenomenon, and therefore both producers and consumers should be prepared to live with this reality.In our paper we looked at the fundamentals, we examined the forces that drive oil and gas prices, we point out the changes that are occurring in the world socio-economic systems that may affect the oil and gas supply patterns in the future.Our method breaks the barrel of oil into segments, namely industrial plus, transportation, Commercial & public services, Residential and electrical generation. Then we predict the demand level for each segment based on the projected growth in the segment, incorporating uncertainty factors. Population growth and the expected standard of living improvements, particularly in the developed nations, are the main causes for increases in energy requirements. In our conclusions, we have found that structural changes are occurring in the energy market. The large consumers of yesterday may not be the same ones tomorrow, and hence we may have new players on both sides; the producing and the consuming sides. We believe that oil and gas prices are going to be more stable and more in tone with the market forces.

Catalytic Decomposition of n-C7 Asphaltenes Using Tungsten Oxides–Functionalized SiO2 Nanoparticles in Steam/Air Atmospheres

“…The growth of the population, as well as the economic and technological developments, imply a continuous increase in the global demand for energy [1]. Consequently, unconventional crude oils, such as heavy crude oil (HO) and extra heavy crude oil (EHO), among others, have gained significant importance [2][3][4].…”