Forcing of Multiyear Extreme Ocean Temperatures that Impacted California Current Living Marine Resources in 2016

Jacox, Michael G.; Alexander, Michael A.; Mantua, Nathan J.; Scott, James D.; Hervieux, Gaëlle; Webb, Robert S.; Werner, Francisco E.

doi:10.1175/bams-d-17-0119.1

Cited by 85 publications

(88 citation statements)

References 19 publications

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“…; Jacox et al . ); as prey became increasingly scarce, weaning juvenile sea lions were unable to find food, resulting in high mortality (Cavole et al . ).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Sentinels are most beneficial when used alongside other physical and biological time-series to help describe the state of the ecosystem and detect ecological thresholds (Samhouri et al 2017). Juvenile mortality in California sea lions in 2013 (McClatchie et al 2016) may have been the first indication of ecosystem effects from a marine heatwave developing in the northeastern Pacific Ocean (Cavole et al 2016;Jacox et al 2018); as prey became increasingly scarce, weaning juvenile sea lions were unable to find food, resulting in high mortality (Cavole et al 2016). In the future, metrics such as sea lion juvenile mortality could flag unobserved variability in fish stocks, supporting changes to fisheries quotas in anomalous years.…”

Section: Relevance Of Ecosystem Sentinels To Marine Management and Gomentioning

confidence: 99%

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Marine top predators as climate and ecosystem sentinels

Hazen

Abrahms

Brodie

et al. 2019

Frontiers in Ecol & Environ

271

157

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The rapid pace of environmental change in the Anthropocene necessitates the development of a new suite of tools for measuring ecosystem dynamics. Sentinel species can provide insight into ecosystem function, identify hidden risks to human health, and predict future change. As sentinels, marine apex (top) predators offer a unique perspective into ocean processes, given that they can move across ocean basins and amplify trophic information across multiple spatiotemporal scales. Because use of the terms “ecosystem sentinel” and “climate sentinel” has proliferated in the scientific literature, there is a need to identify the properties that make marine predators effective sentinels. We provide a clear definition of the term “sentinel”, review the attributes of species identified as sentinels, and describe how a suite of such sentinels could strengthen our understanding and management of marine ecosystems. We contend that the use of marine predators as ecosystem sentinels will enable rapid response and adaptation to ecosystem variability and change.

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“…; Jacox et al . ); as prey became increasingly scarce, weaning juvenile sea lions were unable to find food, resulting in high mortality (Cavole et al . ).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Relevance Of Ecosystem Sentinels To Marine Management and Gomentioning

confidence: 99%

Marine top predators as climate and ecosystem sentinels

Hazen

Abrahms

Brodie

et al. 2019

Frontiers in Ecol & Environ

271

157

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…We found that predicted whale habitat under average environmental conditions overlapped with southern California shipping lanes primarily during June–October, with greater risk exposure shifting from the western to the northern lane later in the year (Figures and ). However, the anomalous warming of 2015 (Bond et al, ; Di Lorenzo & Mantua, ; Jacox et al, , ) resulted in dramatic changes in the timing of overlap, with risk exposure increasing earlier in the year under anomalously warm conditions (Figure ). These predictions were mirrored by the date ranges of observed blue whale sightings in those years (Figure , Figure ).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Spatial layers for the alternate routes were provided by the Channel Islands National Marine Sanctuary. The average of predicted habitat suitability in all grid cells intersecting each lane was calculated for each day of the year in 2009 and 2015 to compare a year with average environmental conditions (2009) to a year in which a climatic anomaly occurred associated with a prolonged marine heatwave (2015) (Bond, Cronin, Freeland, & Mantua, ; Di Lorenzo & Mantua, ; Jacox et al, , ).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Dynamic ensemble models to predict distributions and anthropogenic risk exposure for highly mobile species

Abrahms

Welch

Brodie

et al. 2019

Diversity and Distributions

Self Cite

112

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Aim Advances in ecological and environmental modelling offer new opportunities for estimating dynamic habitat suitability for highly mobile species and supporting management strategies at relevant spatiotemporal scales. We used an ensemble modelling approach to predict daily, year‐round habitat suitability for a migratory species, the blue whale (Balaenoptera musculus), and demonstrate an application for evaluating the spatiotemporal dynamics of their exposure to ship strike risk. Location The California Current Ecosystem (CCE) and the Southern California Bight (SCB), USA. Methods We integrated a long‐term (1994–2008) satellite tracking dataset on 104 blue whales with data‐assimilative ocean model output to assess year‐round habitat suitability. We evaluated the relative utility of ensembling multiple model types compared to using single models, and selected and validated candidate models using multiple cross‐validation metrics and independent observer data. We quantified the spatial and temporal distribution of exposure to ship strike risk within shipping lanes in the SCB. Results Multi‐model ensembles outperformed single‐model approaches. The final ensemble model had high predictive skill (AUC = 0.95), resulting in daily, year‐round predictions of blue whale habitat suitability in the CCE that accurately captured migratory behaviour. Risk exposure in shipping lanes was highly variable within and among years as a function of environmental conditions (e.g., marine heatwave). Main conclusions Daily information on three‐dimensional oceanic habitats was used to model the daily distribution of a highly migratory species with high predictive power and indicated that management strategies could benefit by incorporating dynamic environmental information. This approach is readily transferable to other species. Dynamic, high‐resolution species distribution models are valuable tools for assessing risk exposure and targeting management needs.

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“…Spawning phenology and distribution of anchovy and hake changed dramatically during the marine heatwave (Auth et al, 2017). Salmon abundance within the California Current marine ecosystem is expected to be reduced until at least 2019 due to poor ocean and stream conditions from 2014 to 2016 (Jacox et al, 2018). mouth of Rivers Inlet separates the deep fjord basin from Queen Charlotte Sound and the open ocean.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Warming From Recent Marine Heatwave Lingers in Deep British Columbia Fjord

Jackson

Johnson

Dosser

et al. 2018

Geophysical Research Letters

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While satellite data indicate that the surface expression of the North Pacific marine heatwave, nicknamed "The Blob," disappeared in late 2016, Argo float and ship-based conductivity-temperature-depth data show that warm conditions persisted below the surface mixed layer through at least March 2018. We trace this anomalously warm subsurface water from the open ocean through Queen Charlotte Sound to Rivers Inlet, on British Columbia's central coast. In Rivers Inlet, deep water below the sill depth continues to be 0.3°t o 0.6°C warmer than the monthly average, suggesting that impacts of this marine heatwave have persisted in coastal waters at least 4 years after its onset, with potentially substantial effects on coastal ecosystems.Plain Language Summary The Northeast Pacific Ocean was affected by two warm water events, the first was the 2013 to 2015 marine heatwave, nicknamed The Blob, and the second was the 2015 to 2016 El Niño. Surface satellite data have shown that the warm water was gone by 2016. Using temperature data collected by ship and by autonomous robots, we find that abnormally warm water continues to exist in the open ocean below the surface, at about 140-m depth. In the coastal ocean, we find that deep waters in Rivers Inlet are still 0.3°to 0.6°C warmer than normal, at least 4 years after The Blob was first observed. This warm water could have a big impact on the Rivers Inlet ecosystem.North of Oregon, the Pacific coast features hundreds of fjords that support rich cold-water ecosystems. Fjords are the life-support system of early life stages of salmon (Healey, 1982;Simenstad et al., 1982). Rivers Inlet, located within Wuikinuxv Nation traditional territory, is a typical glacial-fed fjord on British Columbia's central coast (Figure 1) that is about 45 km long, 3 km wide, and 340 m deep. A 140-m (Pickard, 1961) sill at the JACKSON ET AL. 9757

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Forcing of Multiyear Extreme Ocean Temperatures that Impacted California Current Living Marine Resources in 2016

Cited by 85 publications

References 19 publications

Marine top predators as climate and ecosystem sentinels

Marine top predators as climate and ecosystem sentinels

Dynamic ensemble models to predict distributions and anthropogenic risk exposure for highly mobile species

Warming From Recent Marine Heatwave Lingers in Deep British Columbia Fjord

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