Forecast and Analysis of China's Health Human Resources and Medical Higher Education Development Demand

Abstract

Background: Statistics show that as of the end of December 2017, there were 11.749 million health workers and 898.82 million health technicians in China. In recent years, with the rapid development of the economy, the rapid expansion of the health manpower, which requires more scientific and rational health manpower forecasting, health manpower planning.It is important to strengthen and study the forecast of the future demand of the health workforce.Methods: On the basis of analyzing the current situation, changing trend and problems of China's human resources allocation and higher medical education, this study uses ARIMA model to forecast the demand of health workers in China from 2018 to 2024, and compares the difference smaller supply and demand of China's total health manpower.To determine the future development trend of China's health manpower, and finally explore the scientific and reasonable forecasting method of human resources for health. Results: China's total health manpower is relatively adequate, the proportion of medical care is unreasonable, medical staff is inadequate. The ARIMA model predicts an improvement in the inversion of health care in China and a continued increase in the demand for health care.By 2024, China's demand for health personnel will reach 17.4563 million, but the health manpower supply is still not keeping pace with the growth rate of demand, and the quantitative gap is still gradually widening in the short term, the gap between supply and demand in 2024 reached 1.4859 million people, medical and health institutions and medical education institutions are under greater pressure. Conclusion: In view of the forecast results of China's health human resources in this study, policy makers and health managers should pay more attention to and support the forecastplanning of health human resources, strengthen the government's macro-control, and actively solve the shortage of health manpower. Actively explore scientific models or methods for forecasting the demand of health workers, guide the planning practice of health manpower, guide the training of health personnel in colleges and universities, moderately expand the scale of medical education and training, and vigorously improve the quality of medical education.