Forecast Issues in the Urban Zone: Report of the 10th Prospectus Development Team of the U.S. Weather Research Program

Abstract

The 10th Prospectus Development Team (PDT-10) of the U.S. Weather Research Program was charged with identifying research needs and opportunities related to the short-term prediction of weather and air quality in urban forecast zones. Weather has special and significant impacts on large numbers of the U.S. population who live in major urban areas. It is recognized that urban users have different weather information needs than do their rural counterparts. Further, large urban areas can impact local weather and hydrologic processes in various ways. The recommendations of the team emphasize that human life and well-being in urban areas can be protected and enjoyed to a significantly greater degree. In particular, PDT-10 supports the need for 1) improved access to real-time weather information, 2) improved tailoring of weather data to the specific needs of individual user groups, and 3) more user-specific forecasts of weather and air quality. Specific recommendations fall within nine thematic areas: 1) development of a user-oriented weather database; 2) focused research on the impacts of visibility and icing on transportation; 3) improved understanding and forecasting of winter storms; 4) improved understanding and forecasting of convective storms; 5) improved forecasting of intense/ severe lightning; 6) further research into the impacts of large urban areas on the location and intensity of urban convec-tion; 7) focused research on the application of mesoscale forecasting in support of emergency response and air quality; 8) quantification and reduction of uncertainty in hydrological, meteorological, and air quality modeling; and 9) the need for improved observing systems. An overarching recommendation of PDT-10 is that research into understanding and predicting weather impacts in urban areas should receive increased emphasis by the atmospheric science community at large, and that urban weather should be a focal point of the U.S. Weather Research Program.

Influence of Land Use Land Cover on Cyclone Track Prediction – A Study During Aila Cyclone

“…(2f-h). Earlier studies in literature on sensitivity of cyclone track on land use/land cover also suggested that surface roughness and soil moisture play an important role in predicting the actual track of the cyclone [19][20][21][22][23][24][25]. This suggests that incorporation of current land use/land cover data in mesoscale model plays an important role in cyclone track prediction.…”

Coupling of Important Physical Processes in the Planetary Boundary Layer between Meteorological and Chemistry Models for Regional to Continental Scale Air Quality Forecasting: An Overview

“…However, the PBL is not always well defined, whenever frontal boundaries, deep convection, or multiple levels thermal inversions are involved [40]. In addition, Dabberdt et al [40] recommended the establishment of a high-resolution nation-wide observing network to monitor the diurnal variation of PBL heights.…”

“…In addition, Dabberdt et al [40] recommended the establishment of a high-resolution nation-wide observing network to monitor the diurnal variation of PBL heights. Their recommendation stemmed from the conclusion that Air Quality modeling accuracy is significantly limited by the lack of knowledge of the PBL structure and dynamics.…”

Challenges Associated with Classifying Urban Meteorological Stations: The Oklahoma City Micronet Example

“…Further, urban growth is heterogeneous both spatially and temporally [25], and with nearly twothirds of the United States population residing in urban areas occupying less than two percent of the landmass, a detailed understanding of atmospheric processes in urban areas is critically important [26]. Not only is the awareness of impending weather changes beneficial to daily planning and emergency management for millions of urban residents, but overall public health is also impacted by local urban weather and climate.…”

“…Suite 2900, Norman, OK 73072, USA; Tel: 405-325-2541; Fax: 405-325-2550; E-mail: schroeder@ou.edu accurate forecasts, advisories, and warnings [27][28][29]. To achieve such increased levels of urban-atmospheric awareness and the growing need for general meteorological services that impact building and urban design [30], energy conservation, transport and communications, air quality and health [27,28], storm water and engineering, insurance and emergency measures [26], increased real-time researchquality observations must be collected that represent the spectrum of urban climate regions within a city [31]. However, because the urban-atmosphere interface is very complex, representative measurements are often difficult to collect [32].…”