FORECAST MODELING OF MANAGEMENT GUIDELINES AS THE FOUNDATION OF INTERNATIONAL POSITIONING - CHALLENGES FOR BiH

Abstract

The international market requires the strengthening of the competitive advantages of all participants in it. The formulation of a positioning strategy requires the investment of resources in acquiring additional knowledge. This resource enables the avoidance of “strategic failures”, which often characterized the attempts of domestic business systems to access the international market. Managing international development and market positioning of business systems within the domestic and international environment requires additional management energy and additional knowledge. Digitalization of business significantly reduces business costs, thus eliminating numerous obstacles for poorer and less developed countries, which need and must use their chance to effectively integrate into international economic flows. Informing about censored demand, as well as its forecasting within the selected business area, represents an opportunity that enables safe and efficient access to the global market. Censored demand is a part of demand within the business scope that is not recorded by the bidders, because it arose after the bidders in the selected market segment, made the most of their own production capacity. Predicting censored demand is an area of quantitative analysis with the task of predicting the value of a variable, which is a special challenge for the researcher, given that the history of the variable is not known. Diversification of business activities into the global market requires knowladge of the scope and structure of damand for products that bussines sistems are able to offer. Sometimes, bussines systems avoid applaying those products that, in full capacity, are offerd by local comapnies on the selected target market segment, becouse the fact that a certain company places a total offer does not mean that the offer is satisfied. The business systems who are on the top a certain market segment, although aware of the existance of additional demand are no able to expand the scope of activities for objective reasons. All of the above leaves space for market positioning business systems that are not able to do busines locally. The special interest may have small and medium companys from contrys such as ours, who have all the necessary infrastructure to sell in a foreign market. Doing business in a distance market must be based on careful nalaysis of the factors that affests the success of such a business strategy. Specioal atention shoud be paid to the analysis of censored becouse it is one of the most important factors of success in foreign markets. Adequate prediction of censored demand, which is effectively solved by mathematical simulation models, whose application methodology will be presented in this research project. The possibilities of mathematical simulation in the function of prognostics are very effective becouse they are adjusetd individually to each management problem. The application of the mathematical simulation model doese not require a real system and can also be applied to abstract systems. In relation to how similar the model is to the real system it affects to credibility obtained information as a solution of the model.