Forecast of drifter trajectories using a Rapid Environmental Assessment based on CTD observations

Sorgente, Roberto; Tedesco, Costanza; Pessini, Federica; Dominicis, Michela De; Gerin, Riccardo; Olita, Antonio; Fazioli, Leopoldo; Maio, Antonia Di; Ribotti, Alberto

doi:10.1016/j.dsr2.2016.06.020

Cited by 16 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 45 publications

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“…The kinetic energy is thus dynamically consistent with the initial condition and the wind stress field applied. This methodology is a common practice for the initialization of regional/coastal models with climatological (Mellor, 1991; or quasi-synoptic data for nowcast (Onken and Sellschopp, 2001;Sorgente et al, 2016) and forecast experiments (Ezer et al, , 1993Onken et al, 2005). Running the ocean model in diagnostic mode, rather than the classical geostrophic approach, usually gives more realistic results.…”

Section: The Numerical Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of Freshwater Inflow From the Volturno River on Coastal Circulation

Sorgente

Maio²,

Pessini

et al. 2020

Front. Mar. Sci.

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The coastal area located in front of the Volturno river estuary (the Gulf of Gaeta, central-eastern Tyrrhenian Sea) was synoptically sampled in seven surveys between June 2012 and October 2014. Vertical profiles of temperature and salinity were acquired on a high-resolution nearly-regular grid in order to describe the spatial and temporal variability of the characteristics of the waters. Moreover, the three-dimensional velocity field associated with each survey was computed through the full momentum equations of the Princeton Ocean Model to provide a first assessment of the steady-state circulation at small scale. The data analysis shows the entire water column to be characterized by an evident thermal cycle and a vertical thermohaline structure, dominated by three types of waters: the freshwater of the river, the saltier coastal Tyrrhenian waters, and transitional waters originating from their mixing. The inflow of freshwater strongly affects the density distribution, leading to strong temporal variability in the upper layer. Its impact is more evident in winter, sometimes inducing a vertical temperature inversion. In case of rainy events, and also in conditions of high vertical temperature stratification, it forms a surface-trapped layer with high density gradients. These and wind forcing contribute to the formation of small-scale shallow features, such as longshore currents and cyclonic and anticyclonic eddies. The latter influence the vertical stratification and modify the coastal circulation, preserving the transitional waters from the surrounding saltier ones.

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Section: The Numerical Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of Freshwater Inflow From the Volturno River on Coastal Circulation

Sorgente

Maio²,

Pessini

et al. 2020

Front. Mar. Sci.

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“…It is a free surface three-dimensional primitive equation. It is based on the Princeton ocean model [30] and was implemented between 9-16.50 • E and 31.50-43 • N with a horizontal resolution of about 2 km (1/48 • of degree in latitude) on 30 sigma levels [10]. The initial and lateral conditions were obtained from a one-way asynchronous nesting of the forecasted hourly fields of temperature, salinity, and total velocity [25] from the regional Mediterranean Forecasting System (MFS) provided by the Copernicus Marine Service [31].…”

Section: The Sicily Channelmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This last parameter is dimensionless based on the cumulative Lagrangian separation distances normalized by the associated cumulative observed trajectory lengths. Its value can vary between 0 and 1, with 1 corresponding to a total overlap between the observed and simulated trajectories, while 0 corresponds to a difference between the path of the drifters and the simulated trajectories on the same path made by the drifters [10,13].…”

Section: Numerical System Validationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The knowledge of the marine and the weather components is essential to treat any kind of oil pollution, like that coming from maritime accidents with relative spillage of hydrocarbons, or chronic pollution as a continuous release from punctual or diffuse sources. Numerical models are strictly deterministic and based on "primitive equations" for the reproduction of water circulation with a good reliability [9,10]. This approach provides an essential basis for a realistic numerical simulation of the complex processes of transformation and transport of "active" tracers, subject to change as a function of space and time.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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An Operational Marine Oil Spill Forecasting Tool for the Management of Emergencies in the Italian Seas

Ribotti

Antognarelli

Cucco

et al. 2018

JMSE

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Oil extraction platforms are potential sources of oil spills. For this reason, an oil spill forecasting system was set up to support the management of emergencies from the oil fields in the Italian seas. The system provides ready-to-use products to the relevant response agencies and optimizes the anti-pollution resources by assessing hazards and risks related to this issue. The forecasting system covers seven working oil platforms in the Sicily Channel and middle/low Adriatic Sea. It is composed of a numerical chain involving nested ocean models from regional to coastal spatial scales and an oil spill model. The system provides two online services, one automatic and a second dedicated to possible real emergencies or exercises on risk preparedness and responding. The automatic service produces daily short-term simulations of hypothetical oil spill dispersion, transport, and weathering processes from each extraction platform. Products, i.e., risk maps, animations, and a properly called bulletin, are available on a dedicated web-portal. The hazard estimations are computed by performing geo-statistical analysis on the daily forecasts database. The second service is activated in near-real-time producing oil spill simulations for the following 48 h.

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“…It is widely used as an evaluation method of trajectory modeling [20,21] and was proposed to solve weaknesses in the Lagrangian separation distance in relation to the continental shelf and its adjacent deep ocean. The evaluation methods in Sections 4.1 and 4.2 are the average of the errors, and thus the lower the better.…”

Section: Normalized Cumulative Lagrangian Separation (Ncls)mentioning

confidence: 99%

Prediction of Drifter Trajectory Using Evolutionary Computation

Nam

Kim

2018

Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society

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We used evolutionary computation to predict the trajectory of surface drifters. The data used to create the predictive model comprise the hourly position of the drifters, the flow and wind velocity at the location, and the location predicted by the MOHID model. In contrast to existing numerical models that use the Lagrangian method, we used an optimization algorithm to predict the trajectory. As the evaluation measure, a method that gives a better score as the Mean Absolute Error (MAE) when the difference between the predicted position in time and the actual position is lower and the Normalized Cumulative Lagrangian Separation (NCLS), which is widely used as a trajectory evaluation method of drifters, were used. The evolutionary methods Differential Evolution (DE), Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO), Covariance Matrix Adaptation Evolution Strategy (CMA-ES), and ensembles of the above were used, with the DE&PSO ensemble found to be the best prediction model. Considering our objective to find a parameter that minimizes the fitness function to identify the average of the difference between the predictive change and the actual change, this model yielded better results than the existing numerical model in three of the four cases used for the test data, at an average of 19.36% for MAE and 5.96% for NCLS. Thus, the model using the fitness function set in this study showed improved results in NCLS and thus shows that NCLS can be used sufficiently in the evaluation system.

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Forecast of drifter trajectories using a Rapid Environmental Assessment based on CTD observations

Cited by 16 publications

References 45 publications

Impact of Freshwater Inflow From the Volturno River on Coastal Circulation

Impact of Freshwater Inflow From the Volturno River on Coastal Circulation

An Operational Marine Oil Spill Forecasting Tool for the Management of Emergencies in the Italian Seas

Prediction of Drifter Trajectory Using Evolutionary Computation

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