Forecast of Economic Tight Oil and Gas Production in Permian Basin

Saputra, Wardana; Kirati, Wissem; Patzek, Tadeusz W

doi:10.3390/en15010043

Cited by 6 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 16 publications

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“…From these wells, we have retained only 484,759 vertical wells that were completed in conventional reservoirs. The remaining hydraulically fractured horizontal or directional wells completed in unconventional shale reservoirs are analyzed in a separate paper [29]. The approach we used here is rooted in our prior work on the physics-guided, data-driven forecasts in the Barnett [13], Eagle Ford [15], Bakken [16,17], Haynesville [19], and Marcellus [22].…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…To the best of our knowledge, this is the first successful attempt to construct a physics-guided, data-driven forecast of the nearly half a million legacy vertical wells in the Permian Basin. In a separate paper [29], we present the forecast for the hydraulically fractured horizontal wells, completed specifically in the shale formations of the Permian.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Generalized Extreme Value Statistics, Physical Scaling and Forecasts of Oil Production from All Vertical Wells in the Permian Basin

2022

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We analyze nearly half a million vertical wells completed since the 1930s in the most prolific petroleum province in the U.S., the Permian Basin. We apply a physics-guided, data-driven forecasting approach to estimate the remaining hydrocarbons in these historical wells and the probabilities of well survival. First, we cluster the production data set into 192 spatiotemporal well cohorts based on 4 reservoir ages, 6 sub-plays, and 8 completion date intervals. Second, for each cohort, we apply the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) statistics to each year of oil production from every well in this cohort, obtaining historical well prototypes. Third, we derive a novel physical scaling that extends these well prototypes for several more decades. Fourth, we calculate the probabilities of well survival and observe that a vertical well in the Permian can operate for 10–100 years, depending on the sub-play and reservoir to which this well belongs. Fifth, we estimate the total field production of all existing vertical wells in the Permian by replacing historical production from each well with its prototype. We then time-shift and sum up these prototypes together, obtaining 34 billion barrels of oil as estimated ultimate recovery (EUR). Our most notable finding is that the rate of finding big reservoirs in the Permian has been declining drastically and irreversibly since the 1970s. Today, operators need to drill wells that are twice as deep as the 1930s’ wells, yet they produce 4–12 times less.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Generalized Extreme Value Statistics, Physical Scaling and Forecasts of Oil Production from All Vertical Wells in the Permian Basin

2022

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“…Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution [43] is a probability distribution of the extrema (minima or maxima) of independent and identically distributed random variables. The GEV models have been successfully applied by Patzek et al [44,50], and Saputra et al [45,47,51,52], Haider et al [53], Saputra et al [54] to model gas, oil and condensate production from the US shale formations (see Introduction).…”

Section: Gev Distributionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Improved Amott Method to Determine Oil-Recovery Dynamics from Water-Wet Limestone using GEV Statistics

Kaprielova,

Yutkin,

Mowafi

et al. 2024

Preprint

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Counter-current spontaneous imbibition of water is a critical oil-recovery mechanism. In the laboratory, the Amott test is a widely used technique to assess efficacy of brine imbibition into oil-saturated core plugs. The classic Amott-cell methodology was designed to estimate ultimate oil recovery, but not the recovery dynamics that provides essential information about the imbibition mechanisms. Retention of oil droplets at the external core surface and delayed onset of oil production are the two key artifacts of the classic Amott experiment. This retention, referred to here as the ``external-surface oil holdup effect'', often results in stepwise recovery curves that obscure true dynamics of spontaneous imbibition. To address these holdup drawbacks of the classic Amott method, we modified the Amott cell and experimental procedure. For the first time, using water-wet Indiana limestone cores saturated with brine and mineral oil, we showed that our improvements of the Amott method enabled accurate and reproducible measurements of oil-recovery dynamics. We used the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) statistics to describe oil-production histories from water-wet heterogeneous limestone cores with finite initial water saturations, for the first time. We demonstrated that our four-parameter GEV model accurately described the recovery dynamics, and that optimal GEV parameter values systematically reflected the key characteristics of the oil-rock system, such as oil viscosity and rock permeability. These findings gave us a more fundamental understanding of spontaneous, counter-current imbibition mechanisms and insights into what constitutes a predictive model of counter-current water imbibition into oil-saturated rocks with finite initial water saturation.

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“…Such models have proven to be especially impactful in the forecasting of reservoir yields and in analyzing sensitivity and uncertainty factors. Scholars have been working on the development of quantitative and semianalytical methods to gain a deeper comprehension of the underlying principles of hydraulic fracturing within compact geological formations [1][2][3][4]. The complexity of many systems often renders traditional methods unsuitable.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Research on Production Prediction Method of Multi-stage Fractured Shale Gas Horizontal Well

Yin,

Zhang

2024

Applied Mathematics and Nonlinear Sciences

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Shale gas is a crucial component of unconventional energy. Productivity evaluation of gas wells is essential to ensure efficient and stable production. However, predicting productivity has been challenging due to the complex characteristics of shale gas reservoirs and the use of multi-stage fractured horizontal wells (MFHW) technology in the development process. This study compares traditional production prediction methods with an optimized least squares support vector machine model (LSSVM). The traditional productivity prediction method involves establishing a mathematical model of the MFHW in a fully enclosed rectangular shale formation. The model considers the effects of shale gas adsorption, diffusion, and pressure sensitivity. The model’s analytical solution is obtained using Duhamel’s principle, Laplace transform, and inverse transform. An independent production data analysis software is developed based on the analytical solution of bottom-hole pressure to predict production. To implement the LSSVM model, the model’s input parameters must be determined first. The LSSVM model’s regularization parameters and kernel parameters are obtained through the particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm, and the prediction model is established. The model’s matching is evaluated by calculating the coefficient of determination (R2) and the normalized root mean square error (NRMSE). The results indicate that the traditional production capacity prediction method is suitable for stable production in terms of applicability. However, the LSSVM model does not have this limitation and generally provides more accurate predictions throughout the entire production process. For complex shale gas reservoirs that frequently switch wells and use multi-stage fracturing technology, the LSSVM model is more suitable for predicting shale gas well productivity.

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Forecast of Economic Tight Oil and Gas Production in Permian Basin

Cited by 6 publications

References 16 publications

Generalized Extreme Value Statistics, Physical Scaling and Forecasts of Oil Production from All Vertical Wells in the Permian Basin

Generalized Extreme Value Statistics, Physical Scaling and Forecasts of Oil Production from All Vertical Wells in the Permian Basin

Improved Amott Method to Determine Oil-Recovery Dynamics from Water-Wet Limestone using GEV Statistics

Research on Production Prediction Method of Multi-stage Fractured Shale Gas Horizontal Well

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