Forecast of export demand based on artificial neural network and fuzzy system theory

Abstract

This paper analyses the significance and methods of foreign trade export forecasting. The index system of foreign trade export forecasting is determined based on the analysis of foreign trade export forecasting research results. The concepts and principles of artificial neural network and fuzzy system theory are expounded, and their respective advantages and disadvantages as well as their complementarities are analyzed. This paper introduces the types and training algorithms of evolutionary morphological neural network, combines the neural network with the fuzzy system theory, and establishes the prediction model. Finally, the evolutionary morphological neural network model is applied to the prediction of foreign trade export in view of the characteristics of export and considering the influence of various factors, the whole process of establishing evolutionary morphological neural network forecasting model is introduced in detail, and the change range of export is predicted, and the ideal forecasting results are obtained.

A method of forecasting trade export volume based on back-propagation neural network

“…The Trade and Export Forecast Index System is developed based on analyzing the research results of the trade and export forecast. The author explains the concepts and principles of artificial neural networks and fuzzy system theory and analyzes their strengths, weaknesses, and complementarities [ 4 ]. Zhu E trained and tested a model forecasting USD, EUR, JPY, and HKD exchange rates for the period between November 2017 and July 2018 in MATLAB using a multilayer neural network algorithm.…”