Forecast of lacustrine shale lithofacies types in continental rift basins based on machine learning: A case study from Dongying Sag, Jiyang Depression, Bohai Bay Basin, China

Abstract

Lacustrine shale in continental rift basins is complex and features a variety of mineralogical compositions and microstructures. The lithofacies type of shale, mainly determined by mineralogical composition and microstructure, is the most critical factor controlling the quality of shale oil reservoirs. Conventional geophysical methods cannot accurately forecast lacustrine shale lithofacies types, thus restricting the progress of shale oil exploration and development. Considering the lacustrine shale in the upper Es4 member of the Dongying Sag in the Jiyang Depression, Bohai Bay Basin, China, as the research object, the lithofacies type was forecast based on two machine learning methods: support vector machine (SVM) and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost). To improve the forecast accuracy, we applied the following approaches: first, using core and thin section analyses of consecutively cored wells, the lithofacies were finely reclassified into 22 types according to mineralogical composition and microstructure, and the vertical change of lithofacies types was obtained. Second, in addition to commonly used well logging data, paleoenvironment parameter data (Rb/Sr ratio, paleoclimate parameter; Sr %, paleosalinity parameter; Ti %, paleoprovenance parameter; Fe/Mn ratio, paleo-water depth parameter; P/Ti ratio, paleoproductivity parameter) were applied to the forecast. Third, two sample extraction modes, namely, curve shape-to-points and point-to-point, were used in the machine learning process. Finally, the lithofacies type forecast was carried out under six different conditions. In the condition of selecting the curved shape-to-point sample extraction mode and inputting both well logging and paleoenvironment parameter data, the SVM method achieved the highest average forecast accuracy for all lithofacies types, reaching 68%, as well as the highest average forecast accuracy for favorable lithofacies types at 98%. The forecast accuracy for all lithofacies types improved by 7%–28% by using both well logging and paleoenvironment parameter data rather than using one or the other, and was 7%–8% higher by using the curve shape-to-point sample extraction mode compared to the point-to-point sample extraction mode. In addition, the learning sample quantity and data value overlap of different lithofacies types affected the forecast accuracy. The results of our study confirm that machine learning is an effective solution to forecast lacustrine shale lithofacies. When adopting machine learning methods, increasing the learning sample quantity (>45 groups), selecting the curve shape-to-point sample extraction mode, and using both well logging and paleoenvironment parameter data are effective ways to improve the forecast accuracy of lacustrine shale lithofacies types. The method and results of this study provide guidance to accurately forecast the lacustrine shale lithofacies types in new shale oil wells and will promote the harvest of lacustrine shale oil globally.