Forecast of peak infection and estimate of excess deaths in COVID-19 transmission and prevalence in Taiyuan City, 2022 to 2023

Wang, Jia-Lin; Xiao, Xin-Long; Zhang, Fen-Fen; Pei, Xin; Li, Ming-Tao; Zhang, Ju-Ping; Zhang, Juan; Sun, Gui-Quan

doi:10.1016/j.idm.2023.11.005

Infectious Disease Modelling

2024

DOI: 10.1016/j.idm.2023.11.005

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Forecast of peak infection and estimate of excess deaths in COVID-19 transmission and prevalence in Taiyuan City, 2022 to 2023

Jia-Lin Wang,

Xin-Long Xiao,

Fen-Fen Zhang

et al.

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Mortality trends in people with disabilities before and during the COVID-19 pandemic in South Korea, 2017–2022

Kim,

Kwon

et al. 2024

Front. Public Health

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ObjectiveTo investigate temporal trends in mortality rates and underlying causes of death in persons with disabilities before and during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic.MethodsAnnual mortality rates and causes of death were analyzed using data covering the 2017–2022 period.ResultsThe mortality rate among people with disabilities increased from 2017 to 2022; the rate was five times higher during COVID-19 in this population than in the general population. When analyzing the cause of death, the incidence of infectious diseases and tuberculosis decreased after COVID-19. In contrast, the incidence of other bacillary disorders (A30–A49) increased. The incidence of respiratory system diseases (J00–J99), influenza and pneumonia (J09–J18), and other acute lower respiratory infections (J20–J22) decreased before COVID-19, while the incidence of lung diseases due to external agents (J60–J70), other respiratory diseases principally affecting the interstitium (J80–J84), and other diseases of the pleura (J90–J94) increased during the pandemic. The risk of COVID-19 death among people with disabilities was 1.1-fold higher for female patients (95% CI = 1.06–1.142), 1.41-fold for patients aged 70 years and older (95% CI = 1.09–1.82), and 1.24-fold higher for people with severe disabilities (95% CI = 1.19–1.28).ConclusionsThe mortality rate in people with disabilities significantly increased during COVID-19, compared with that before the pandemic. People with disabilities had a higher mortality rate during COVID-19 compared with the general population. Risk factors must be reduced to prevent high mortality rates in this population.

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Mortality trends in people with disabilities before and during the COVID-19 pandemic in South Korea, 2017–2022

Kim,

Kwon

et al. 2024

Front. Public Health

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Forecast of peak infection and estimate of excess deaths in COVID-19 transmission and prevalence in Taiyuan City, 2022 to 2023

Cited by 1 publication

References 22 publications

Mortality trends in people with disabilities before and during the COVID-19 pandemic in South Korea, 2017–2022

Mortality trends in people with disabilities before and during the COVID-19 pandemic in South Korea, 2017–2022

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