Forecast Uncertainties in the Operational Flood Forecasting of the Bavarian Danube Catchment

Laurent, Stefan; Hangen-Brodersen, Christine; Ehret, Uwe; Meyer, Inke; Moritz, Katja; Vogelbacher, A.; Holle, Franz-Klemens

doi:10.1007/978-90-481-3423-6_12

Cited by 8 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 1 publication

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“…While large-scale meteorological models and satellites provide important inputs, in particular on future precipitation, capturing the local hydrological situation is essential for accurately modelling floods . Increasingly longer lead times are expected from warning agencies, which requires the estimation of forecast uncertainties to quantify the confidence one has in the predictions (Cloke and Pappenberger, 2009;Laurent et al, 2010;Komma et al, 2008;Nester et al, 2012). However, communicating these uncertainties remains a challenge.…”

Section: Implications For Flood Risk Managementmentioning

confidence: 99%

The June 2013 flood in the Upper Danube Basin, and comparisons with the 2002, 1954 and 1899 floods

Blöschl

Nester

Komma

et al. 2013

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

231

191

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Section: Implications For Flood Risk Managementmentioning

confidence: 99%

The June 2013 flood in the Upper Danube Basin, and comparisons with the 2002, 1954 and 1899 floods

Blöschl

Nester

Komma

et al. 2013

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

231

191

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“…Second, a scientific approach entailing the application of scientific and engineering principles in the design, construction and installation of the component structures and equipment that comprise the monitoring networks. The design of the monitoring networks established in the three watersheds was based on expert judgment and experience, as well as lessons learned from literature review of previous projects (Gomani et al 2010;Laurent et al 2010;Kongo et al 2010;Munyaneza et al 2010;EFLUM 2011;STRI 2011). In addition, local expert knowledge was utilized.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In recent years, there have been some successful examples of data collection at watershed scale, with the involvement of various stakeholders (e.g., Gomani et al 2010;Kongo et al 2010;Laurent et al 2010;Munyaneza et al 2010;EFLUM 2011;STRI 2011). In places where the hydrological monitoring activities were undertaken, local communities were consulted and involved in both the establishment and maintenance of the networks.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A participatory approach for hydrometeorological monitoring in the Blue Nile River Basin of Ethiopia

Zemadim¹,

McCartney²,

Langan³

et al. 2013

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155 Research ReportsThe publications in this series cover a wide range of subjects-from computer modeling to experience with water user associations-and vary in content from directly applicable research to more basic studies, on which applied work ultimately depends. Some research reports are narrowly focused, analytical and detailed empirical studies; others are wide-ranging and synthetic overviews of generic problems.Although most of the reports are published by IWMI staff and their collaborators, we welcome contributions from others. Each report is reviewed internally by IWMI staff, and by external reviewers. The reports are published and distributed both in hard copy and electronically (www.iwmi.org) and where possible all data and analyses will be available as separate downloadable files. Reports may be copied freely and cited with due acknowledgment. About IWMIIWMI's mission is to improve the management of land and water resources for food, livelihoods and the environment. In serving this mission, IWMI concentrates on the integration of policies, technologies and management systems to achieve workable solutions to real problems-practical, relevant results in the field of irrigation and water and land resources.

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“…The metrics are calculated as in Table 1. In real-time, the discharge is forecasted for the upstream gauges by the Water Management Authority, Hof, and can be obtained from the LARSIM (Large Area Runoff Simulation Model) model [4]. If the peak of the forecasted discharge is lower than the threshold of a one-year return period (Q RP1 ), only the discharge forecast is shown to the end users.…”

Section: Evaluation Metricsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Framework for Offline Flood Inundation Forecasts for Two-Dimensional Hydrodynamic Models

2018

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The paper presents a new methodology for hydrodynamic-based flood forecast that focuses on scenario generation and database queries to select appropriate flood inundation maps in real-time. In operational flood forecasting, only discharges are forecasted at specific gauges using hydrological models. Hydrodynamic models, which are required to produce inundation maps, are computationally expensive, hence not feasible for real-time inundation forecasting. In this study, we have used a substantial number of pre-calculated inundation maps that are stored in a database and a methodology to extract the most likely maps in real-time. The method uses real-time discharge forecast at upstream gauge as an input and compares it with the pre-recorded scenarios. The results show satisfactory agreements between offline inundation maps that are retrieved from a pre-recorded database and online maps, which are hindcasted using historical events. Furthermore, this allows an efficient early warning system, thanks to the fast run-time of the proposed offline selection of inundation maps. The framework is validated in the city of Kulmbach in Germany.

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Forecast Uncertainties in the Operational Flood Forecasting of the Bavarian Danube Catchment

Cited by 8 publications

References 1 publication

The June 2013 flood in the Upper Danube Basin, and comparisons with the 2002, 1954 and 1899 floods

The June 2013 flood in the Upper Danube Basin, and comparisons with the 2002, 1954 and 1899 floods

A participatory approach for hydrometeorological monitoring in the Blue Nile River Basin of Ethiopia

Framework for Offline Flood Inundation Forecasts for Two-Dimensional Hydrodynamic Models

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