Forecasting Alpine Vegetation Change Using Repeat Sampling and a Novel Modeling Approach

Johnson, David R.; Ebert-May, Diane; Webber, P. J.; Tweedie, C. E.

doi:10.1007/s13280-011-0175-z

Cited by 18 publications

(17 citation statements)

References 44 publications

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“…The most notable vegetation change within the alpine tundra on Niwot Ridge has been the increase of native willow shrubs (primarily Salix planifolia Pursh and S. glauca L (Salicaceae); Johnson et al 2011;Spasojevic et al 2013), similar to observations in arctic tundra systems (Elmendorf et al 2012). An examination of 10 aerial photographs spanning the period 1946-2008 indicated that Salix species have expanded by 441% over the 62-year period within the Saddle grid area on Niwot Ridge (from 0.24 to 1.29% cover; Formica et al 2014).…”

Section: Micro-scale Distribution Of Plant Species Within Alpine Tundrasupporting

confidence: 56%

“…Species not typical of snowbeds are colonising these areas in some years (Spasojevic et al 2013), suggesting that these communities are very sensitive to variability in snow cover Virtanen et al 2003;Wipf et al 2009). A recent modelling effort based on three sampling dates over a 30-year period at Niwot Ridge also suggested that snow bank vegetation was likely to decrease in the future (Johnson et al 2011).…”

Section: Micro-scale Distribution Of Plant Species Within Alpine Tundramentioning

confidence: 99%

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Vegetation change at high elevation: scale dependence and interactive effects on Niwot Ridge

Suding

Farrer

King

et al. 2015

Plant Ecology & Diversity

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Background: High-elevation mountain systems may be particularly responsive to climate change. Aims: Here we investigate how changes along elevation gradients in mountain systems can aid in predicting vegetation distributional changes in time, focusing on how changing climatic controls affect meso-scale transitions at the lower and upper boundaries of alpine vegetation (with forest and subnival zones, respectively) as well as micro-scale transitions among plant communities within the alpine belt. We focus on climate-related drivers, particularly in relation to climate change, but also consider how species interactions, dispersal and responses to disturbance may influence plant responses to these abiotic drivers. Results: Empirical observations and experimental studies indicate that changing climatic controls influence both meso-scale transitions at the upper and lower boundaries of alpine vegetation and micro-scale transitions among plant communities within tundra. Micro-scale heterogeneity appears to buffer response in many cases, while interactions between climate and other changes may often accelerate change. Conclusions: Interactions with microtopography and larger edaphic gradients have the capacity to both facilitate rapid changes and reinforce stability, and that these interactions will affect the responsiveness of vegetation to climate change at different spatial scales.

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Section: Micro-scale Distribution Of Plant Species Within Alpine Tundrasupporting

confidence: 56%

Section: Micro-scale Distribution Of Plant Species Within Alpine Tundramentioning

confidence: 99%

Vegetation change at high elevation: scale dependence and interactive effects on Niwot Ridge

Suding

Farrer

King

et al. 2015

Plant Ecology & Diversity

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“…Cushions, including the mat‐forming Sibbaldia procumbens , are the dominant life form group in the snow bed communities of Niwot Ridge, and recent evidence has suggested that S. procumbens ‐dominated snow bed communities are highly sensitive to alterations in season length and may decrease productivity in response to future climate conditions (Johnson et al. , Spasojevic et al. ).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The best model of cushion productivity indicates a positive effect of watering and negative responses to heating with or without supplemental watering, indicating future climate could negatively affect this life form regardless of changes in growing season precipitation. Cushions, including the mat-forming Sibbaldia procumbens, are the dominant life form group in the snow bed communities of Niwot Ridge, and recent evidence has suggested that S. procumbens-dominated snow bed communities are highly sensitive to alterations in season length and may decrease productivity in response to future climate conditions (Johnson et al 2011, Spasojevic et al 2013. Even if additional moisture during the growing season prevents cushions such as S. procumbens from experiencing a full seasonal dry-down of soils that is typical of communities at Niwot Ridge (Taylor and Seastedt 1994), warmer temperatures may still drive productivity declines.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Soil moisture mediates alpine life form and community productivity responses to warming

Winkler

Chapin

Kueppers

2016

Ecology

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Climate change is expected to alter primary production and community composition in alpine ecosystems, but the direction and magnitude of change is debated. Warmer, wetter growing seasons may increase productivity; however, in the absence of additional precipitation, increased temperatures may decrease soil moisture, thereby diminishing any positive effect of warming. Since plant species show individual responses to environmental change, responses may depend on community composition and vary across life form or functional groups. We warmed an alpine plant community at Niwot Ridge, Colorado continuously for four years to test whether warming increases or decreases productivity of life form groups and the whole community. We provided supplemental water to a subset of plots to alleviate the drying effect of warming. We measured annual above-ground productivity and soil temperature and moisture, from which we calculated soil degree days and adequate soil moisture days. Using an information-theoretic approach, we observed that positive productivity responses to warming at the community level occur only when warming is combined with supplemental watering; otherwise we observed decreased productivity. Watering also increased community productivity in the absence of warming. Forbs accounted for the majority of the productivity at the site and drove the contingent community response to warming, while cushions drove the generally positive response to watering and graminoids muted the community response. Warming advanced snowmelt and increased soil degree days, while watering increased adequate soil moisture days. Heated and watered plots had more adequate soil moisture days than heated plots. Overall, measured changes in soil temperature and moisture in response to treatments were consistent with expected productivity responses. We found that available soil moisture largely determines the responses of this forbdominated alpine community to simulated climate warming.

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“…Johnson et al 2011 (Kohler et al 2006). Annual mean temperature is nowadays 0.7°C (Kohler et al 2006).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Tree and Shrub Expansion Over the Past 34 Years at the Tree-Line Near Abisko, Sweden

Rundqvist

Hedenås

Sandström³

et al. 2011

AMBIO

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Shrubs and trees are expected to expand in the sub-Arctic due to global warming. Our study was conducted in Abisko, sub-arctic Sweden. We recorded the change in coverage of shrub and tree species over a 32-to 34-year period, in three 50 9 50 m plots; in the alpine-tree-line ecotone. The cover of shrubs and trees (\3.5 cm diameter at breast height) were estimated during 2009-2010 and compared with historical documentation from 1976 to 1977. Similarly, all tree stems (C3.5 cm) were noted and positions determined. There has been a substantial increase of cover of shrubs and trees, particularly dwarf birch (Betula nana), and mountain birch (Betula pubescens ssp. czerepanovii), and an establishment of aspen (Populus tremula). The other species willows (Salix spp.), juniper (Juniperus communis), and rowan (Sorbus aucuparia) revealed inconsistent changes among the plots. Although this study was unable to identify the causes for the change in shrubs and small trees, they are consistent with anticipated changes due to climate change and reduced herbivory.

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Forecasting Alpine Vegetation Change Using Repeat Sampling and a Novel Modeling Approach

Cited by 18 publications

References 44 publications

Vegetation change at high elevation: scale dependence and interactive effects on Niwot Ridge

Vegetation change at high elevation: scale dependence and interactive effects on Niwot Ridge

Soil moisture mediates alpine life form and community productivity responses to warming

Tree and Shrub Expansion Over the Past 34 Years at the Tree-Line Near Abisko, Sweden

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