The purpose of this
study is to develop a data-driven proxy model
for forecasting of cumulative oil (Cum-oil) production during the
steam-assisted gravity drainage process. During the model building
process, an artificial neural network (ANN) is used to offer a complementary
and computationally efficient tool for the physics-driven model, and
the von Bertalanffy performance indicator is used to bridge the physics-driven
model with the ANN. After that, the accuracy of the model is validated
by blind-testing cases. Average absolute percentage error of related
parameters of the performance indicator in the testing data set is
0.77%, and the error of Cum-oil production after 20 years is 0.52%.
The results illustrate that the integration of performance indicator
and ANN makes it possible to solve time series problems in an efficient
way. Besides, the data-driven proxy model could be applied to fast
parametric studies, quick uncertainty analysis with the Monte Carlo
method, and average daily oil production prediction. The findings
of this study could help for better understanding of combination of
physics-driven model and data-driven model and illustrate the potential
for application of the data-driven proxy model to help reservoir engineers,
making better use of this significant thermal recovery technology
for oil sands or heavy oil reservoirs.