Forecasting Architecture Billings Index Using Time Series Models

Kim, Sooin; Abediniangerabi, Bahram; Shahandashti, Mohsen

doi:10.1061/9780784483978.041

Cited by 4 publications

(3 citation statements)

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“…The American Institute of Architects (AIA) monthly publishes architecture billings indices (ABIs) at national, regional, and sectoral levels. The ABI is calibrated as a diffusion index centered at a score of 50 (Kim et al. , 2022a).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…As a parametric approach, the ADF test has been reported to be more reliable and robust than other nonparametric approaches such as Phillips-Perron (PP) tests (Maddala and Kim, 1998). Particularly, the ADF test shows strength in analyzing the high-frequency macroeconomic time series data such as the ABIs that are monthly published and are likely to possess major time series characteristics such as a trend (Shrestha and Bhatta, 2018; Kim et al. , 2022a).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Inefficient planning and prioritization can cause a large socioeconomic loss, especially in the construction industry, where a massive amount of construction spending is spent on scarce construction resources . Therefore, the accurate assessment of construction demand ahead of supplying the design services is critical not only for the success of the construction businesses but also for the maximization of social utilities Kim and Shahandashti, 2022a, b). The objective of this study is to diagnose and quantify the post-COVID-19 fluctuations in different ABI data.…”

Section: Ecam 312mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Diagnosing and quantifying post-COVID-19 fluctuations in the architecture billings indices

Kim

Makhmalbaf

Shahandashti

2022

ECAM

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PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to understand the post-COVID-19 fluctuations in the building construction demand from various angles at the national, regional, and sectoral levels. Despite the significant impact of COVID-19 on the building construction industry, a detailed quantitative analysis of the COVID-19 impact on the building construction demand is still lacking. The current study aims to (1) establish a statistical approach to quantify the COVID-19 impact on the building construction demand; (2) investigate the post-COVID-19 fluctuations in the construction demand of different building services, regional markets, and building sectors using the historical time series of the architecture billings index (ABI); and (3) identify vulnerable market and sector and discuss the post-COVID-19 recovery strategies.Design/methodology/approachThe research methodology follows four steps: (1) collecting national, regional, and sectoral ABIs; (2) creating seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average models; (3) illustrating cumulative sum control charts to identify significant ABI deviations; and (4) quantifying the post-COVID-19 ABI fluctuations.FindingsThe results show that all the ABIs experienced a statistically significant decrease after COVID-19. The project inquiries index reduced more but recovered faster than billings and design contracts indices. The midwest billings index decreased the most among the regional ABIs and the commercial/industrial billing index dropped the most among the sectoral ABIs.Originality/valueThis study is unique in the way that it utilized the ABI data and the approach using SARIMA models and CUSUM control charts to assess the post-COVID-19 building construction demand represented by ABI fluctuations.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Ecam 312mentioning

confidence: 99%

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