Forecasting Capabilities for the London 2012 Olympics

Golding, Brian; Ballard, Sue; Mylne, Ken; Roberts, Nigel; Saulter, Andrew; Wilson, Clive; Agnew, Paul; Davis, L. S.; Trice, J.; Jones, Chris; Simonin, David; Li, Z.; Pierce, Clive; Bennett, Alec; Weeks, Mark; Moseley, Stephen

doi:10.1175/bams-d-13-00102.1

Cited by 49 publications

(54 citation statements)

References 30 publications

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“…-Take values of u, v from a latitude/height slice of an output the Met Office's convective-scale (1.5 km grid) UM (this is the same model used by the Met Office during the 2012 Olympics, as indicated by Golding et al, 2014, and has the same horizontal resolution and grid staggering as our model). These fields are adjusted to eliminate the discontinuity imposed by the periodic boundary conditions 1 .…”

Section: Intermittent Convection-like Behaviourmentioning

confidence: 99%

The ABC model: a non-hydrostatic toy model for use in convective-scale data assimilation investigations

2017

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Abstract. In developing methods for convective-scale data assimilation (DA), it is necessary to consider the full range of motions governed by the compressible Navier-Stokes equations (including non-hydrostatic and ageostrophic flow). These equations describe motion on a wide range of timescales with non-linear coupling. For the purpose of developing new DA techniques that suit the convective-scale problem, it is helpful to use so-called "toy models" that are easy to run and contain the same types of motion as the full equation set. Such a model needs to permit hydrostatic and geostrophic balance at large scales but allow imbalance at small scales, and in particular, it needs to exhibit intermittent convection-like behaviour. Existing "toy models" are not always sufficient for investigating these issues.A simplified system of intermediate complexity derived from the Euler equations is presented, which supports dispersive gravity and acoustic modes. In this system, the separation of timescales can be greatly reduced by changing the physical parameters. Unlike in existing toy models, this allows the acoustic modes to be treated explicitly and hence inexpensively. In addition, the non-linear coupling induced by the equation of state is simplified. This means that the gravity and acoustic modes are less coupled than in conventional models. A vertical slice formulation is used which contains only dry dynamics. The model is shown to give physically reasonable results, and convective behaviour is generated by localised compressible effects. This model provides an affordable and flexible framework within which some of the complex issues of convective-scale DA can later be investigated. The model is called the "ABC model" after the three tunable parameters introduced: A (the pure gravity wave frequency), B (the modulation of the divergent term in the continuity equation), and C (defining the compressibility).

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Section: Intermittent Convection-like Behaviourmentioning

confidence: 99%

The ABC model: a non-hydrostatic toy model for use in convective-scale data assimilation investigations

2017

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“…Subkilometer-scale models are emerging from being run experimentally to actually aiding forecasts: for instance, the London and Weymouth 333-m models (Golding et al 2013;Wang et al 2013), model development for the High Definition Clouds and Precipitation for Climate Prediction project, and Environment Canada's highresolution model development for outdoor venues at the 2015 Toronto Pan-Am Games. We therefore require novel observational strategies and diagnostic tools for model evaluation.…”

Section: Is 200-m Resolution Good Enough?mentioning

confidence: 99%

The DYMECS Project: A Statistical Approach for the Evaluation of Convective Storms in High-Resolution NWP Models

Stein

Hogan

Clark

et al. 2015

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

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“…Improvements in computational ability (e.g. Lamb et al , ; Neal et al , ; Glenis et al , ) and in convection‐permitting numerical weather prediction (NWP) and ensemble forecasts (Golding et al , ) mean that it is now potentially possibly to develop innovative approaches to surface water flood forecasting in urban areas. However, due to the rapid onset and localised nature of surface water flooding, the predictability of the probability of occurrence is likely to remain low at lead‐times beyond a few hours.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Developing surface water flood forecasting capabilities in Scotland: an operational pilot for the 2014 Commonwealth Games in Glasgow

Speight

Cole

Moore

et al. 2016

J Flood Risk Management

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Existing surface water flood forecasting methods in Scotland are based on indicative depth‐duration rainfall thresholds with limited understanding of the likelihood of inundation or associated impacts. Innovative risk‐based solutions are urgently needed to advance surface water forecasting capabilities for improved flood resilience in urban centres. A new model‐based solution was developed for Glasgow, linking 24‐h ensemble rainfall predictions from the Met Office Global and Regional Ensemble Prediction System for the UK (MOGREPS‐UK) with static flood risk maps through the Grid‐to‐Grid hydrological model. This new forecasting capability was used operationally by the Scottish Flood Forecasting Service during the 2014 Commonwealth Games to provide bespoke surface water flooding guidance to responders. The operational trial demonstrated the benefits of being able to provide targeted information on real‐time surface water flood risk. It also identified the high staff resource requirement to support the service due to the greater uncertainty in surface water flood forecasting compared to established fluvial and coastal methods.

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Forecasting Capabilities for the London 2012 Olympics

Cited by 49 publications

References 30 publications

The ABC model: a non-hydrostatic toy model for use in convective-scale data assimilation investigations

The ABC model: a non-hydrostatic toy model for use in convective-scale data assimilation investigations

The DYMECS Project: A Statistical Approach for the Evaluation of Convective Storms in High-Resolution NWP Models

Developing surface water flood forecasting capabilities in Scotland: an operational pilot for the 2014 Commonwealth Games in Glasgow

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