Forecasting China's renewable energy consumption using a novel dynamic fractional-order discrete grey multi-power model

Xia, Lin; Ren, Youyang; Wang, Yuhong; Pan, Yangyang; Fu, Yiyang

doi:10.1016/j.renene.2024.121125

Renewable Energy

2024

DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2024.121125

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Forecasting China's renewable energy consumption using a novel dynamic fractional-order discrete grey multi-power model

Lin Xia,

Youyang Ren,

Yuhong Wang

et al.

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Cited by 2 publications

References 45 publications

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International Review of Financial Analysis

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ESG stock markets and clean energy prices prediction: Insights from advanced machine learning

Ghallabi,

Souissi,

et al. 2025

International Review of Financial Analysis

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Advancing Grey Modeling with a Novel Time-Varying Approach for Predicting Solar Energy Generation in the United States

Zhou,

Zhao,

Xia

et al. 2024

Sustainability

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This paper proposes a novel time-varying discrete grey model (TVDGM(1,1)) to precisely forecast solar energy generation in the United States. First, the model utilizes the anti-forgetting curve as the weight function for the accumulation of the original sequence, which effectively ensures the prioritization of new information within the model. Second, the time response function of the model is derived through mathematical induction, which effectively addresses the common jump errors encountered when transitioning from difference equations to differential equations in traditional grey models. Research shows that compared to seven other methods, this model achieves better predictive performance, with an error rate of only 2.95%. Finally, this method is applied to forecast future solar energy generation in the United States, and the results indicate an average annual growth rate of 23.67% from 2024 to 2030. This study advances grey modeling techniques using a novel time-varying approach while providing critical technical and data support for energy planning.

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Forecasting China's renewable energy consumption using a novel dynamic fractional-order discrete grey multi-power model

Cited by 2 publications

References 45 publications

ESG stock markets and clean energy prices prediction: Insights from advanced machine learning

ESG stock markets and clean energy prices prediction: Insights from advanced machine learning

Advancing Grey Modeling with a Novel Time-Varying Approach for Predicting Solar Energy Generation in the United States

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